TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12464602
Played Aug 21Finished
Pavel Varecha
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119711119––
Daniel Tobola
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tobola to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Daniel Tobola below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Daniel Tobola at 59.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 2–9 Daniel Tobola Pavel Varecha has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:34What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tobola
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Tobola
Wrong
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1447 vs Tobola 1370
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 80% vs Tobola 40%
Varecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 70% vs Tobola 30%
Varecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha +1 · Tobola +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tobola) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobola form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 2.63 / Tobola 1.44
Signal prob.43% / 58%
Edge (Tobola)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12464602
Varecha2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 26 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Tobola1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 20 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it67% 8 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it60% 12 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecha2wins
AwayTobola8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTobola leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha40%2 of 5
AwayTobola100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha5Tobola5n = 10split evenly
S2Varecha2Tobola8n = 10Tobola took 8 of 10
S3Varecha4Tobola6n = 10Tobola took 6 of 10
S4Varecha3Tobola5n = 8Tobola took 5 of 8
S5Varecha1Tobola3n = 4Tobola took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarechaTobolaV − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.042.0−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaTobolaBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 206 vs 45 / 9351%48.4%105 / 206 vs 45 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TobolaVarecha 2.63/Tobola 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.5%
Tobola · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 08:59P. Varecha—11911482D. Tobola—711711113
WAug 21 · 06:00P. Varecha—11117113D. Tobola—791191
LJul 23 · 06:30P. Varecha—81030D. Tobola—1112113
LJul 7 · 09:30P. Varecha—581191D. Tobola—11111113
LJul 7 · 06:00P. Varecha—11711942D. Tobola—911411113
LMar 17 · 07:00P. Varecha—118431D. Tobola—81111113
LMar 5 · 10:30P. Varecha—911711112D. Tobola—117119133
LMar 5 · 08:30P. Varecha—107110D. Tobola—1211133
WOct 16 · 08:00P. Varecha—135811113D. Tobola—111111982
LOct 13 · 09:30P. Varecha—1391171D. Tobola—15118113
P. Varecha10
LSep 2 · 09:30P. Varecha1.60761271Z. Zientek2.20111110113WSep 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.73111011113E. Sionkala2.00512781LSep 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.50114911113P. Varecha1.5071111752WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.251111123A. Virag3.7587100WSep 1 · 09:29P. Varecha2.1011711113F. Zurek1.67511681LSep 1 · 08:30J. Stach1.7391111113P. Varecha2.00114471WSep 1 · 07:30P. Varecha1.611111113D. Mikula2.206770WSep 1 · 06:30F. Zurek1.449480P. Varecha2.631111113LAug 29 · 16:59P. Varecha1.36115461V. Bosak3.0051111113LAug 29 · 16:30M. Jaksa1.671111113P. Varecha2.109770
D. Tobola10
WAug 21 · 08:59P. Varecha2.1011911482D. Tobola1.67711711113LAug 21 · 08:30D. Tobola1.831161271F. Zurek1.8371114113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Tobola2.2010820R. Guliak1.611211113WAug 20 · 08:59M. Blejchar1.575740D. Tobola2.251111113LAug 20 · 08:30D. Tobola1.83310151162F. Zurek1.831112138113LAug 20 · 07:00D. Tobola1.8311890R. Guliak1.831311113LAug 20 · 06:00M. Blejchar1.61115117113D. Tobola2.2041181142WAug 17 · 08:58D. Tobola1.2811712113M. Levicky3.508111091WAug 17 · 08:30D. Tobola1.671111113M. Levicky2.105570LAug 17 · 07:00D. Tobola1.80111111692R. Guliak1.91961311113
Upcoming Matches
P. Varecha
D. Tobola
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