TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449694
Played Aug 18Finished
Michal Jezek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
131141161113111012
Tomas Prosa
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Prosa to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Jezek above · Tomas Prosa below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Prosa at 68.5%
102 points played in total.
H2H Michal Jezek 3–8 Tomas Prosa Michal Jezek has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Prosa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Prosa
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jezek 1801 vs Prosa 1785
Jezek
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jezek 80% vs Prosa 40%
Jezek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jezek 60% vs Prosa 40%
Jezek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jezek +2 · Prosa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Prosa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prosa form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJezek 2.63 / Prosa 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Prosa)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12449694
Jezek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 55 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back40% 21 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Prosa1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 28 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJezek3wins
AwayProsa7wins
8 of 10 to a deciderProsa leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJezek33.3%2 of 6
AwayProsa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jezek6Prosa4n = 10Jezek took 6 of 10
S2Jezek6Prosa4n = 10Jezek took 6 of 10
S3Jezek5Prosa5n = 10split evenly
S4Jezek2Prosa7n = 9Prosa took 7 of 9
S5Jezek2Prosa6n = 8Prosa took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJezekProsaJ − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.444.1−1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJezekProsaBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 346 vs 105 / 21550.6%48.8%175 / 346 vs 105 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProsaJezek 2.63/Prosa 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Prosa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Prosa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 8 · 15:00M. Jezek—81191172T. Prosa—115119113
LApr 29 · 16:30M. Jezek—5640T. Prosa—1111113
LJan 8 · 15:00M. Jezek—1111611112T. Prosa—871113133
WNov 4 · 16:00M. Jezek—11511113T. Prosa—611681
LAug 26 · 17:30M. Jezek—117111052T. Prosa—411112113
WAug 26 · 14:00M. Jezek—111288113T. Prosa—910111142
LAug 21 · 17:30M. Jezek—11711972T. Prosa—711711113
LAug 21 · 16:00M. Jezek—41411492T. Prosa—1112711113
WJul 1 · 17:30M. Jezek—9111110113T. Prosa—11741262
LJul 1 · 14:00M. Jezek—131251022T. Prosa—11101112113
M. Jezek10
WSep 3 · 17:28M. Jezek2.20111011113J. Kanera1.61612461LSep 3 · 16:00J. Kanera1.57118119123M. Jezek2.25611911102WSep 3 · 15:00O. Svacha2.2511980M. Jezek1.571311113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Jezek1.33611119113V. Kolar3.2511481192WSep 2 · 17:00M. Jezek2.3811911113J. Ruzicka1.53611571LSep 2 · 16:30M. Jezek1.5311571662O. Svacha2.387111114113WSep 2 · 15:00M. Jezek1.91117612113J. Ruzicka1.80811111082LSep 2 · 14:00P. Gireth1.441111113M. Jezek2.638690WAug 26 · 17:00M. Jezek2.001111113V. Nohejl1.735770WAug 26 · 16:30M. Jezek2.1011111215113V. Nohejl1.67139141352
T. Prosa10
WAug 29 · 09:29T. Prosa1.731111143O. Kolisnyk2.0099120WAug 29 · 08:00O. Kolisnyk1.805660T. Prosa1.911111113WAug 29 · 07:00R. Urbaniec2.50117551T. Prosa1.5081111113WAug 29 · 06:30T. Prosa1.5013119113J. Ruzicka2.501161171WAug 18 · 15:59D. Barton2.2541330T. Prosa1.57111573LAug 18 · 14:30T. Prosa1.67126761A. Barton2.10101111113WAug 5 · 16:59T. Prosa1.57148614113V. Kolar2.251211111282WAug 5 · 16:00T. Prosa1.801111113V. Kolar1.918880LAug 5 · 15:30J. Ruzicka2.501181110113T. Prosa1.5041181282LAug 5 · 14:00T. Prosa1.8011410101O. Kolisnyk1.9181112123
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