TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12447296
Played Aug 17Finished
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118611119––
Krzysztof Kotyl
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kotyl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
119118611119––
H2H Mikolaj Lukaszewski 80–100 Krzysztof Kotyl Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 80 of their 180 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:51What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Lukaszewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
80-100 in 180
Kotyl
Wrong
gap of 20 in 180, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukaszewski 1339 vs Kotyl 1356
Kotyl
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukaszewski 100% vs Kotyl 60%
Lukaszewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukaszewski 50% vs Kotyl 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukaszewski +5 · Kotyl +1
Lukaszewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukaszewski 1.75 / Kotyl 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotyl)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #12447296
Lukaszewski1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 120 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it79% 96 of 121
Kotyl1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 239 of 576
Down 0–1, comes back21% 71 of 335
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukaszewski6wins
AwayKotyl4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLukaszewski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukaszewski71.4%5 of 7
AwayKotyl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukaszewski7Kotyl3n = 10Lukaszewski took 7 of 10
S2Lukaszewski5Kotyl5n = 10split evenly
S3Lukaszewski5Kotyl5n = 10split evenly
S4Lukaszewski2Kotyl7n = 9Kotyl took 7 of 9
S5Lukaszewski4Kotyl1n = 5Lukaszewski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukaszewskiKotylL − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.0−1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukaszewskiKotylBasisWin rate · lifetime926 / 2040 vs 1026 / 216245.4%47.5%926 / 2040 vs 1026 / 2162Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiLukaszewski 1.75/Kotyl 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 07:20M. Lukaszewski—11116113K. Kotyl—981191
LAug 4 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski—11121181K. Kotyl—13146113
LAug 3 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski—144641K. Kotyl—121111113
WJul 22 · 01:25M. Lukaszewski—117146123K. Kotyl—9111211102
WJul 21 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski—1211113K. Kotyl—10960
LJul 21 · 24:35M. Lukaszewski—147991K. Kotyl—121111113
LJul 20 · 22:10M. Lukaszewski—81191182K. Kotyl—117118113
WJul 14 · 01:25M. Lukaszewski—811116113K. Kotyl—11781182
WJul 13 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski—118115113K. Kotyl—81191162
WJul 1 · 17:20M. Lukaszewski—111186113K. Kotyl—94111182
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 9 · 08:10M. Lukaszewski2.006890A. Szoltysek1.701111113WSep 9 · 06:30B. Wisniewski1.7398100M. Lukaszewski1.911111123LSep 9 · 05:40M. Zwolinski1.9091116113M. Lukaszewski1.801191451WSep 9 · 04:55M. Lukaszewski2.4311118113K. Sulkowski1.45671171LSep 9 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski3.30461131A. Lilien1.2711119113LSep 4 · 13:55A. Myszewski1.28131111113M. Lukaszewski3.251113761LSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840WSep 4 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski3.7581512113A. Lilien1.2211131081WSep 4 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski2.55811911113W. Gronowski1.4311911772LSep 4 · 09:50M. Minda1.23111111123M. Lukaszewski3.558134101
K. Kotyl10
WAug 17 · 08:10A. Myszewski1.821011111172K. Kotyl1.86127913113WAug 17 · 05:15B. Warpas1.966660K. Kotyl1.761111113LAug 17 · 04:30K. Rudomina1.4211175113K. Kotyl2.607151181WAug 17 · 03:00I. Dabrowski1.8651040K. Kotyl1.831112113WAug 14 · 08:10K. Sulkowski1.877970K. Kotyl1.851111113LAug 14 · 07:20K. Klocek1.581111113K. Kotyl2.097520WAug 14 · 05:15M. Trela2.0010980K. Kotyl1.721211113LAug 14 · 04:30B. Sulkowski1.701411911113K. Kotyl1.95121311772LAug 14 · 03:00A. Myszewski1.851241111113K. Kotyl1.8514117872LAug 13 · 08:10K. Sulkowski1.80671111113K. Kotyl1.9011119792
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