TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13100376
Played Sep 9Finished
Mariusz Zwolinski
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191614115––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
9111191614115––
H2H Mariusz Zwolinski 1–3 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mariusz Zwolinski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lukaszewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Lukaszewski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zwolinski 1230 vs Lukaszewski 1251
Lukaszewski
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zwolinski 40% vs Lukaszewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zwolinski 30% vs Lukaszewski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zwolinski +1 · Lukaszewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZwolinski 1.90 / Lukaszewski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lukaszewski)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13100376
Zwolinski1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 42 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Lukaszewski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite53% won 106 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it81% 86 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeZwolinski1wins
AwayLukaszewski3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLukaszewski leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZwolinskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLukaszewski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zwolinski1Lukaszewski3n = 4Lukaszewski took 3 of 4
S2Zwolinski2Lukaszewski2n = 4split evenly
S3Zwolinski1Lukaszewski3n = 4Lukaszewski took 3 of 4
S4Zwolinski3Lukaszewski0n = 3Zwolinski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricZwolinskiLukaszewskiZ − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.542.2−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZwolinskiLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 341 vs 912 / 200936.1%45.4%123 / 341 vs 912 / 2009Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiZwolinski 1.90/Lukaszewski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zwolinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 2 · 03:50M. Zwolinski—55111192M. Lukaszewski—111146113
LAug 19 · 04:10M. Zwolinski—91690M. Lukaszewski—1118113
WAug 2 · 09:00M. Zwolinski—11114113M. Lukaszewski—971141
LAug 2 · 07:40M. Zwolinski—51481272M. Lukaszewski—11121110113
M. Zwolinski10
WSep 9 · 04:10M. Zwolinski1.8011119113B. Wisniewski1.80761181LSep 9 · 03:00M. Zwolinski2.3571112582A. Szoltysek1.501181011113WSep 7 · 13:55A. Szoltysek1.65126111182M. Zwolinski2.06141178113LSep 7 · 13:05A. Sobel1.1414112113M. Zwolinski4.651271181LSep 7 · 12:15M. Zwolinski3.401011731S. Brud1.2612911113LSep 7 · 10:35M. Zwolinski1.901854101J. Nosiadek1.75161111123LSep 7 · 09:50M. Minda1.2571111113M. Zwolinski3.40113531WSep 7 · 08:35A. Szoltysek1.90121011992M. Zwolinski1.751012911113LSep 7 · 07:20M. Zwolinski2.009912101K. Sulkowski1.70111110123LSep 7 · 06:05B. Wisniewski1.8513114133M. Zwolinski1.8511911111
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 9 · 06:30B. Wisniewski1.7398100M. Lukaszewski1.911111123WSep 9 · 04:55M. Lukaszewski2.4311118113K. Sulkowski1.45671171LSep 9 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski3.30461131A. Lilien1.2711119113LSep 4 · 13:55A. Myszewski1.28131111113M. Lukaszewski3.251113761LSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840WSep 4 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski3.7581512113A. Lilien1.2211131081WSep 4 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski2.55811911113W. Gronowski1.4311911772LSep 4 · 09:50M. Minda1.23111111123M. Lukaszewski3.558134101WSep 4 · 08:35A. Myszewski1.411111111192M. Lukaszewski2.60213713113LSep 4 · 07:20M. Lukaszewski3.355770B. Sulkowski1.271111113
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M. Lukaszewski
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