TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12410576
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Franek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117311411711––
Radim Urbaniec
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:02 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Franek above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 65 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 54.9%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Franek 4–12 Radim Urbaniec Tomas Franek has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:02What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Urbaniec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Urbaniec
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Franek 1635 vs Urbaniec 1675
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Franek 40% vs Urbaniec 20%
Franek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Franek 40% vs Urbaniec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Franek -2 · Urbaniec -4
Urbaniec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFranek 2.25 / Urbaniec 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Urbaniec)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12410576
Franek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 21 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Urbaniec1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it93% 103 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it78% 139 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFranek1wins
AwayUrbaniec9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFranek16.7%1 of 6
AwayUrbaniec100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Franek6Urbaniec4n = 10Franek took 6 of 10
S2Franek4Urbaniec6n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S3Franek0Urbaniec10n = 10Urbaniec took 10 of 10
S4Franek2Urbaniec6n = 8Urbaniec took 6 of 8
S5Franek1Urbaniec3n = 4Urbaniec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFranekUrbaniecF − UBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.942.1−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFranekUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 158 vs 566 / 109950%51.5%79 / 158 vs 566 / 1099Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecFranek 2.25/Urbaniec 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 21 · 02:00T. Franek—8640R. Urbaniec—1111113
LJun 9 · 22:00T. Franek—8890R. Urbaniec—1111113
LMay 29 · 22:00T. Franek—11146592R. Urbaniec—8121111113
LMay 14 · 13:28T. Franek—11771192R. Urbaniec—911117113
LMay 14 · 12:30T. Franek—611581R. Urbaniec—11711113
LMay 14 · 09:29T. Franek—11116882R. Urbaniec—971111113
LMay 14 · 08:00T. Franek—116821R. Urbaniec—31111113
LMay 13 · 02:58T. Franek—711741R. Urbaniec—11611113
LMay 13 · 01:00T. Franek—111211101R. Urbaniec—31413123
WApr 9 · 24:00T. Franek—1110812113R. Urbaniec—712111072
T. Franek10
LSep 4 · 02:58T. Franek1.676850M. Klement2.101111113LSep 4 · 01:30T. Franek2.1041060J. Simecek1.671112113LSep 4 · 24:30M. Klement2.20911136113T. Franek1.61119111152WSep 3 · 23:30M. Wagner1.67781161T. Franek2.1011118113WSep 3 · 22:30T. Franek1.911111113M. Sychra1.809990LSep 2 · 02:30T. Franek2.10761191V. Vejvoda1.6711113113LSep 2 · 01:30S. Kasnik1.4491411123T. Franek2.6311126101LSep 2 · 24:00T. Franek1.67591191M. Sychra2.1011113113WSep 1 · 23:00M. Klement2.10119781T. Franek1.6781111113LAug 14 · 01:00T. Franek2.00511125102M. Huk1.731181011123
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192
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