TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052595
Played Sep 2Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91114121161210––
Tomas Franek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Tomas Franek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 64.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 8–1 Tomas Franek Tomas Franek has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kasnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Kasnik
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1733 vs Franek 1625
Kasnik
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 40% vs Franek 20%
Kasnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 60% vs Franek 40%
Kasnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -2 · Franek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Franek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 1.44 / Franek 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kasnik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052595
Kasnik1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 113 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it91% 67 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it72% 91 of 127
Franek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 21 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back21% 5 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKasnik8wins
AwayFranek1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKasnik leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik85.7%6 of 7
AwayFranekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik7Franek2n = 9Kasnik took 7 of 9
S2Kasnik6Franek3n = 9Kasnik took 6 of 9
S3Kasnik7Franek2n = 9Kasnik took 7 of 9
S4Kasnik6Franek0n = 6Kasnik took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home556%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKasnikFranekK − FBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match39.032.0+7.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikFranekBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 983 vs 80 / 16147.9%49.7%471 / 983 vs 80 / 161Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikKasnik 1.44/Franek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WFeb 5 · 04:30S. Kasnik—1111113T. Franek—8870
WFeb 4 · 23:30S. Kasnik—12711113T. Franek—1011741
WJan 16 · 23:30S. Kasnik—11611133T. Franek—9119111
WJan 9 · 24:00S. Kasnik—11117113T. Franek—541191
WJan 2 · 23:30S. Kasnik—1111113T. Franek—4990
WDec 5 · 01:00S. Kasnik—91112113T. Franek—1191081
WOct 30 · 23:30S. Kasnik—1211113T. Franek—10560
LOct 17 · 03:00S. Kasnik—118511102T. Franek—811115123
WOct 17 · 02:30S. Kasnik—41111153T. Franek—1184131
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 4 · 08:00S. Kasnik2.75111051322P. Saleny1.405121111113
T. Franek10
LSep 4 · 02:58T. Franek1.676850M. Klement2.101111113LSep 4 · 01:30T. Franek2.1041060J. Simecek1.671112113LSep 4 · 24:30M. Klement2.20911136113T. Franek1.61119111152WSep 3 · 23:30M. Wagner1.67781161T. Franek2.1011118113WSep 3 · 22:30T. Franek1.911111113M. Sychra1.809990LSep 2 · 02:30T. Franek2.10761191V. Vejvoda1.6711113113LSep 2 · 24:00T. Franek1.67591191M. Sychra2.1011113113WSep 1 · 23:00M. Klement2.10119781T. Franek1.6781111113LAug 14 · 02:00T. Franek2.25113471R. Urbaniec1.5771111113LAug 14 · 01:00T. Franek2.00511125102M. Huk1.731181011123
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