TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12408370
Played Aug 12Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611811––––
Michal Prochazka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Prochazka to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Michal Prochazka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Michal Prochazka at 55.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 1–3 Michal Prochazka Martin Cerny has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Prochazka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Prochazka
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1666 vs Prochazka 1768
Prochazka
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 20% vs Prochazka 80%
Prochazka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 40% vs Prochazka 80%
Prochazka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -2 · Prochazka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Prochazka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prochazka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 2.00 / Prochazka 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Prochazka)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12408370
Cerny2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Prochazka1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 50 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCerny1wins
AwayProchazka3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderProchazka leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny2Prochazka2n = 4split evenly
S2Cerny3Prochazka1n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
S3Cerny2Prochazka2n = 4split evenly
S4Cerny2Prochazka1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
S5Cerny0Prochazka3n = 3Prochazka took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCernyProchazkaC − PBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.241.2+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyProchazkaBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 827 vs 74 / 12458%59.7%480 / 827 vs 74 / 124Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProchazkaCerny 2.00/Prochazka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Prochazka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Prochazka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 10 · 17:25M. Cerny50131171182M. Prochazka531113117113
LAug 10 · 13:25M. Cerny485111111102M. Prochazka44116132123
WAug 6 · 14:38M. Cerny331111113M. Prochazka208840
LAug 6 · 12:25M. Cerny42711111212M. Prochazka48114814113
M. Cerny10
LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113WSep 13 · 06:50D. Hyza2.75511841M. Cerny1.4011911113WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102
M. Prochazka10
LAug 29 · 21:55M. Brozek2.381111113M. Prochazka1.539880LAug 29 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.7512811113M. Prochazka1.401011441LAug 29 · 20:25M. Prochazka2.0010111051D. Bochnak1.7312712113LAug 29 · 18:55M. Brozek2.5011115113M. Prochazka1.50871171WAug 29 · 18:00M. Prochazka1.53141111113M. Kulisek2.38167791WAug 29 · 17:25M. Prochazka1.44101111173M. Kulisek2.631258151LAug 29 · 15:55D. Vesecky1.83781211113M. Prochazka1.83111110542LAug 29 · 15:25O. Fiklik2.2011185123M. Prochazka1.6181611101LAug 12 · 09:59M. Prochazka1.50811991M. Cerny2.5011911113LAug 12 · 08:25D. Vesecky1.805121111113M. Prochazka1.91111013992
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