TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12360045
Played Aug 4Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115611611––
Vit Benak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Vit Benak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 10–12 Vit Benak Ondrej Kadavy has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:37What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Benak
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1792 vs Benak 1603
Kadavy
Wrong
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 80% vs Benak 60%
Kadavy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 50% vs Benak 30%
Kadavy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +4 · Benak +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.83 / Benak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kadavy)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12360045
Kadavy1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Benak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy5wins
AwayBenak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy57.1%4 of 7
AwayBenak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy7Benak3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S2Kadavy4Benak6n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S3Kadavy4Benak6n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S4Kadavy5Benak2n = 7Kadavy took 5 of 7
S5Kadavy1Benak2n = 3Benak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyBenakK − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.0+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 309 vs 92 / 16058.6%57.5%181 / 309 vs 92 / 160Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.83/Benak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 26 · 11:55O. Kadavy—8690V. Benak—1111113
WJul 25 · 18:05O. Kadavy—11213113V. Benak—8111161
WJul 25 · 14:55O. Kadavy—1111113V. Benak—7490
WJul 6 · 07:25O. Kadavy—891111113V. Benak—11117572
LNov 7 · 17:55O. Kadavy—6116111V. Benak—11511133
LAug 1 · 11:55O. Kadavy—117111142V. Benak—711137113
LJul 30 · 11:25O. Kadavy—111351132V. Benak—615117113
WJul 25 · 08:55O. Kadavy—15148113V. Benak—13121191
WJul 24 · 18:05O. Kadavy—1111113V. Benak—3760
LJul 24 · 16:55O. Kadavy—1110631V. Benak—8121193
O. Kadavy10
LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.8381111113D. Bochnak1.83119791WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.7391111123D. Bochnak2.001189101LSep 1 · 15:55O. Kadavy2.25911101162D. Jicha1.57117127113LSep 1 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.9181110121F. Strejc1.8011512143LAug 21 · 22:58T. Vorisek1.57121186113O. Kadavy2.25108111152WAug 21 · 20:55O. Kadavy2.50851111113D. Jicha1.5011115272
V. Benak10
LSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113LAug 6 · 18:35D. Jicha1.3851511113V. Benak2.801113561WAug 6 · 17:25F. Strejc2.10681561V. Benak1.67111113113LAug 6 · 16:25V. Benak1.738660D. Jicha2.001111113WAug 6 · 14:55T. Vorisek1.80911911102V. Benak1.91119114123LAug 4 · 18:39D. Jicha2.20311119123V. Benak1.61114811102LAug 4 · 17:25D. Jicha2.201511118123V. Benak1.61178911102WAug 4 · 16:25V. Benak2.00811811113T. Vorisek1.7311411892WJul 26 · 14:30T. Vorisek1.571181091V. Benak2.2591112113
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