TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12350223
Played Aug 2Finished
Mateusz Zagajewski
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211119711911––
Piotr Maruszak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
211119711911––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 6–5 Piotr Maruszak Piotr Maruszak has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:23What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maruszak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1342 vs Maruszak 1388
Maruszak
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 40% vs Maruszak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 30% vs Maruszak 50%
Maruszak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski +1 · Maruszak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maruszak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maruszak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.85 / Maruszak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maruszak)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #12350223
Zagajewski1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back21% 20 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Maruszak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 24 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZagajewski5wins
AwayMaruszak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMaruszak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski6Maruszak4n = 10Zagajewski took 6 of 10
S2Zagajewski2Maruszak8n = 10Maruszak took 8 of 10
S3Zagajewski5Maruszak5n = 10split evenly
S4Zagajewski3Maruszak4n = 7Maruszak took 4 of 7
S5Zagajewski3Maruszak1n = 4Zagajewski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZagajewskiMaruszakZ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.437.1−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiMaruszakBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 786 vs 249 / 52250.4%47.7%396 / 786 vs 249 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaruszakZagajewski 1.85/Maruszak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maruszak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maruszak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 05:35M. Zagajewski—1191111113P. Maruszak—61181332
LMay 15 · 15:25M. Zagajewski—11661142P. Maruszak—911113113
LMay 1 · 13:05M. Zagajewski—7890P. Maruszak—1111113
WMay 1 · 03:25M. Zagajewski—11117113P. Maruszak—871191
WApr 10 · 20:05M. Zagajewski—1111123P. Maruszak—73100
WJan 2 · 10:00M. Zagajewski—113811113P. Maruszak—81111492
LDec 12 · 12:00M. Zagajewski—9860P. Maruszak—1111113
LOct 17 · 11:25M. Zagajewski—881141P. Maruszak—11116113
LOct 2 · 16:55M. Zagajewski—681181P. Maruszak—11114113
WApr 11 · 17:45M. Zagajewski—117114113P. Maruszak—91181162
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171WSep 11 · 13:30M. Zagajewski1.9511711113B. Czerwinski1.75811681LSep 11 · 12:15B. Mleczko1.6912111111143M. Zagajewski1.96147713122WSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.528111011113B. Wisniewski2.3711812992WSep 11 · 06:30M. Trela1.857101181M. Zagajewski1.8011128113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113LSep 11 · 03:50M. Zagajewski2.107118111J. Glanowski1.6011311133
P. Maruszak10
LSep 12 · 04:25P. Maruszak4.255730G. Poliniewicz1.161111113LSep 12 · 03:40K. Wisniewski1.301111123P. Maruszak3.2585100LAug 2 · 13:50P. Maruszak1.86116791M. Woskowicz1.8371111113LAug 2 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.85711661P. Staniszewski1.8011511113WAug 2 · 11:20P. Maruszak1.5011511113A. Mugowski2.45611861LAug 2 · 09:20P. Maruszak1.5551070T. Piotrowski2.251112113WAug 2 · 08:30P. Maruszak1.80111185113M. Woskowicz1.9065111182LAug 2 · 06:50P. Maruszak1.4676121192A. Mugowski2.551111108113LAug 2 · 05:35P. Maruszak1.9761181332M. Zagajewski1.721191111113WAug 2 · 04:00P. Maruszak1.821112113T. Piotrowski1.8851060
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