TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12349488
Played Aug 2Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
1.97
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111198111311311
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.72
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:23 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Maruszak to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
6111198111311311
H2H Piotr Maruszak 5–5 Mateusz Zagajewski Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (53%)
Zagajewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1419 vs Zagajewski 1334
Maruszak
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 60% vs Zagajewski 20%
Maruszak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 40% vs Zagajewski 20%
Maruszak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak +1 · Zagajewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zagajewski) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 1.97 / Zagajewski 1.72
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zagajewski)+0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #12349488
Maruszak1.97
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 23 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Zagajewski1.72
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite56% won 56 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 44 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaruszak5wins
AwayZagajewski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszak100%4 of 4
AwayZagajewski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak4Zagajewski6n = 10Zagajewski took 6 of 10
S2Maruszak7Zagajewski3n = 10Maruszak took 7 of 10
S3Maruszak5Zagajewski5n = 10split evenly
S4Maruszak3Zagajewski3n = 6split evenly
S5Maruszak1Zagajewski2n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaruszakZagajewskiM − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.334.4+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 518 vs 394 / 78247.9%50.4%248 / 518 vs 394 / 782Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZagajewskiMaruszak 1.97/Zagajewski 1.72
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zagajewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 15 · 15:25P. Maruszak—911113113M. Zagajewski—11661142
WMay 1 · 13:05P. Maruszak—1111113M. Zagajewski—7890
LMay 1 · 03:25P. Maruszak—871191M. Zagajewski—11117113
LApr 10 · 20:05P. Maruszak—73100M. Zagajewski—1111123
LJan 2 · 10:00P. Maruszak—81111492M. Zagajewski—113811113
WDec 12 · 12:00P. Maruszak—1111113M. Zagajewski—9860
WOct 17 · 11:25P. Maruszak—11116113M. Zagajewski—881141
WOct 2 · 16:55P. Maruszak—11114113M. Zagajewski—681181
LApr 11 · 17:45P. Maruszak—91181162M. Zagajewski—117114113
LFeb 27 · 21:05P. Maruszak—7970M. Zagajewski—1111113
P. Maruszak10
LSep 12 · 04:25P. Maruszak4.255730G. Poliniewicz1.161111113LSep 12 · 03:40K. Wisniewski1.301111123P. Maruszak3.2585100LAug 2 · 13:50P. Maruszak1.86116791M. Woskowicz1.8371111113LAug 2 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.85711661P. Staniszewski1.8011511113WAug 2 · 11:20P. Maruszak1.5011511113A. Mugowski2.45611861WAug 2 · 10:05M. Zagajewski1.85211791P. Maruszak1.8011911113LAug 2 · 09:20P. Maruszak1.5551070T. Piotrowski2.251112113WAug 2 · 08:30P. Maruszak1.80111185113M. Woskowicz1.9065111182LAug 2 · 06:50P. Maruszak1.4676121192A. Mugowski2.551111108113WAug 2 · 04:00P. Maruszak1.821112113T. Piotrowski1.8851060
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171WSep 11 · 13:30M. Zagajewski1.9511711113B. Czerwinski1.75811681LSep 11 · 12:15B. Mleczko1.6912111111143M. Zagajewski1.96147713122WSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.528111011113B. Wisniewski2.3711812992WSep 11 · 06:30M. Trela1.857101181M. Zagajewski1.8011128113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113LAug 2 · 10:05M. Zagajewski1.85211791P. Maruszak1.8011911113
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