TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12331899
Played Jul 31Finished
Tibor Kolenic
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012118811511––
Vladimir Havlicek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeVladimir Havlicek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Kolenic above · Vladimir Havlicek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vladimir Havlicek at 66.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Kolenic 9–16 Vladimir Havlicek Tibor Kolenic has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Havlicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-16 in 25
Havlicek
Correct
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenic 1410 vs Havlicek 1504
Havlicek
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenic 20% vs Havlicek 60%
Havlicek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenic 30% vs Havlicek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenic -2 · Havlicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Havlicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenic 2.50 / Havlicek 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Havlicek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12331899
Kolenic2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 26 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Havlicek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 57 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 39 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolenic3wins
AwayHavlicek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHavlicek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenic75%3 of 4
AwayHavlicek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenic4Havlicek6n = 10Havlicek took 6 of 10
S2Kolenic6Havlicek4n = 10Kolenic took 6 of 10
S3Kolenic3Havlicek7n = 10Havlicek took 7 of 10
S4Kolenic2Havlicek3n = 5Havlicek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolenicHavlicekK − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.136.8−4.7per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenicHavlicekBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 598 vs 215 / 47246.5%45.6%278 / 598 vs 215 / 472Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavlicekKolenic 2.50/Havlicek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Havlicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Havlicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic—1011851V. Havlicek—12811113
LMay 5 · 06:00T. Kolenic—2960V. Havlicek—1111113
LDec 17 · 07:30T. Kolenic—71141192V. Havlicek—118115113
LOct 21 · 06:30T. Kolenic—1714951V. Havlicek—191211113
WOct 7 · 12:00T. Kolenic—1112113V. Havlicek—91080
LSep 2 · 09:00T. Kolenic—11611672V. Havlicek—711311113
LSep 2 · 06:00T. Kolenic—7280V. Havlicek—1111113
WSep 1 · 08:30T. Kolenic—11116113V. Havlicek—981181
LAug 28 · 06:00T. Kolenic—25110V. Havlicek—1111133
WAug 22 · 13:30T. Kolenic—1211113V. Havlicek—10640
T. Kolenic10
LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 14:00R. Pavelka1.28351111113T. Kolenic3.5011114672LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570LAug 31 · 08:30M. Kolar1.251113113T. Kolenic3.7541140WAug 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.75813813113M. Vedmoch1.401111111162LAug 31 · 06:30J. Plachy1.801111113T. Kolenic1.919660WAug 28 · 21:08F. Briza2.1581141152T. Kolenic1.63116116113WAug 28 · 20:30T. Kolenic1.671013811153F. Briza2.101211118132
V. Havlicek10
WJul 31 · 09:28V. Havlicek1.61134116113M. Trinta2.20111181162WJul 31 · 08:00V. Havlicek1.5731112113M. Trinta2.251161071WJul 31 · 06:00V. Havlicek1.401111611113D. Barton2.7551311872WJul 23 · 09:03V. Havlicek1.611111113D. Barton2.209770LJul 23 · 08:30V. Havlicek2.20412311102M. Kolar1.611110118123WJul 23 · 07:00V. Havlicek1.5312411113D. Barton2.381011871LJul 23 · 06:00K. Darin1.6711139123V. Havlicek2.1071111101WJul 21 · 08:58K. Darin1.671111491V. Havlicek2.1051311113LJul 21 · 08:00V. Havlicek1.8011119572F. Jungman1.91381111113LJul 21 · 07:30J. Plachy1.611112113V. Havlicek2.2071050
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