TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12319131
Played Jul 29Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116117116––
Martin Zajicek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:46 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Martin Zajicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 55.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 2–1 Martin Zajicek Martin Zajicek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:46What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1543 vs Zajicek 1518
Dohnal
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 40% vs Zajicek 60%
Zajicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 50% vs Zajicek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +1 · Zajicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajicek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.53 / Zajicek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Dohnal)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12319131
Dohnal1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 139 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it75% 92 of 122
Zajicek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 8 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDohnal2wins
AwayZajicek1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderDohnal leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal2Zajicek1n = 3Dohnal took 2 of 3
S2Dohnal1Zajicek2n = 3Zajicek took 2 of 3
S3Dohnal2Zajicek1n = 3Dohnal took 2 of 3
S4Dohnal2Zajicek1n = 3Dohnal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDohnalZajicekD − ZBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.038.7+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalZajicekBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 712 vs 56 / 11860.4%47.5%430 / 712 vs 56 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.53/Zajicek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WNov 9 · 07:40J. Dohnal—11913113M. Zajicek—8111151
WJul 20 · 14:40J. Dohnal—811113113M. Zajicek—11261172
LApr 25 · 08:25J. Dohnal—11791162M. Zajicek—411117113
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
M. Zajicek10
LAug 19 · 22:05Z. Vyskocil4.158111211113M. Zajicek1.19111310882LAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173LAug 19 · 19:55M. Zajicek1.91114941T. Barsa1.8061111113LAug 19 · 18:55M. Zajicek1.7310330Z. Vyskocil2.001211113LJul 30 · 22:25M. Zajicek1.1911811232Z. Vyskocil3.90511711113WJul 30 · 20:55Z. Dusek2.5011281382M. Zajicek1.506111111113WJul 30 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil1.7311370M. Zajicek2.001115113WJul 30 · 19:25M. Zajicek2.1013611113T. Jr1.671111581LJul 29 · 22:29J. Dohnal1.4811118113M. Zajicek2.45701141WJul 29 · 20:55Z. Dusek2.009850M. Zajicek1.731111113
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