TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12296314
Played Jul 24Finished
Kamil Kowalewski
Home
1.11
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191012119118––
Denys Kovtanyuk
Away
5.05
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 91.0% is still 91.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kowalewski to win
91.0%
91.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1191012119118––
H2H Kamil Kowalewski 9–5 Denys Kovtanyuk Denys Kovtanyuk has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (82%)
Kowalewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Kowalewski
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalewski 1580 vs Kovtanyuk 1405
Kowalewski
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalewski 20% vs Kovtanyuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalewski 30% vs Kovtanyuk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalewski -3 · Kovtanyuk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Kowalewski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalewski 1.11 / Kovtanyuk 5.05
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Kowalewski)+9.0pp
TT Cup · #12296314
Kowalewski1.11
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 46 of 68
Kovtanyuk5.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 20 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back17% 6 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowalewski7wins
AwayKovtanyuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowalewski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalewski75%3 of 4
AwayKovtanyuk33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalewski4Kovtanyuk6n = 10Kovtanyuk took 6 of 10
S2Kowalewski8Kovtanyuk2n = 10Kowalewski took 8 of 10
S3Kowalewski7Kovtanyuk3n = 10Kowalewski took 7 of 10
S4Kowalewski2Kovtanyuk4n = 6Kovtanyuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalewskiKovtanyukKowalewski − KovtanyukBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.2+4.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalewskiKovtanyukBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 178 vs 71 / 24159%29.5%105 / 178 vs 71 / 241Avg sets wonper match2.31.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.135.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalewskiKowalewski 1.11/Kovtanyuk 5.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91%
Kowalewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowalewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 21:40K. Kowalewski—8119151D. Kovtanyuk—11811173
WJul 23 · 18:00K. Kowalewski—911119123D. Kovtanyuk—119911102
WJul 22 · 20:30K. Kowalewski—71111113D. Kovtanyuk—118981
LJul 18 · 16:35K. Kowalewski—1110881D. Kovtanyuk—91211113
WJul 15 · 15:00K. Kowalewski—1011139113D. Kovtanyuk—127111162
WJun 27 · 11:35K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—7720
WJun 26 · 19:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—5960
WMar 24 · 23:10K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6550
LMar 24 · 19:00K. Kowalewski—8360D. Kovtanyuk—1111113
WFeb 12 · 20:30K. Kowalewski—81111113D. Kovtanyuk—119951
K. Kowalewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 12:05K. Kowalewski1.3391313113K. Zapala2.8511111191LSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102LSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113LSep 5 · 21:35K. Zapala2.6091111133K. Kowalewski1.441167111WSep 5 · 20:35M. Szymanski2.1010149101K. Kowalewski1.60121211123LSep 5 · 19:05K. Guzy2.00121211113K. Kowalewski1.711014771
D. Kovtanyuk10
LJul 24 · 21:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6660LJul 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk3.25861161K. Guzy1.2611118113LJul 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.05311101572A. Veliiev1.681191213113LJul 24 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.5051111622P. Kos1.43114911113WJul 23 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk6.2011811173K. Kowalewski1.078119151LJul 23 · 20:00K. Guzy1.121111113D. Kovtanyuk4.909990WJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8651111113P. Kos1.78116851LJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk4.55119911102K. Kowalewski1.14911119123WJul 23 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.49751311113B. Gola1.43111111582LJul 23 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk4.15741151A. Veliiev1.1711118113
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