TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12296316
Played Jul 24Finished
Denys Kovtanyuk
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611118611––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.26
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 87.9% is still 87.9%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
87.9%
87.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
811611118611––
H2H Denys Kovtanyuk 2–22 Karol Guzy Denys Kovtanyuk has won 2 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:51What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (72%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-22 in 24
Guzy
Correct
gap of 20 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovtanyuk 1408 vs Guzy 1721
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 312 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovtanyuk 40% vs Guzy 100%
Guzy
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovtanyuk 30% vs Guzy 80%
Guzy
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovtanyuk -2 · Guzy +5
Guzy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Guzy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovtanyuk 3.25 / Guzy 1.26
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Guzy)+15.8pp
TT Cup · #12296316
Kovtanyuk3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 20 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back17% 6 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Guzy1.26
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 133 of 227
Up 2–0, closes it90% 63 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 104 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovtanyuk1wins
AwayGuzy9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovtanyuk25%1 of 4
AwayGuzy100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovtanyuk4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Kovtanyuk2Guzy8n = 10Guzy took 8 of 10
S3Kovtanyuk0Guzy10n = 10Guzy took 10 of 10
S4Kovtanyuk2Guzy4n = 6Guzy took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovtanyukGuzyK − GBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.741.6−6.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovtanyukGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 240 vs 644 / 108529.6%59.4%71 / 240 vs 644 / 1085Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.440.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyKovtanyuk 3.25/Guzy 1.26
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.9%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 20:00D. Kovtanyuk—9990K. Guzy—1111113
LJul 22 · 17:30D. Kovtanyuk—11610131K. Guzy—71112153
LJul 18 · 18:05D. Kovtanyuk—6760K. Guzy—1111113
WJul 15 · 19:30D. Kovtanyuk—1191411113K. Guzy—81116582
LJun 27 · 09:35D. Kovtanyuk—129791K. Guzy—101111113
LJun 26 · 15:00D. Kovtanyuk—51212111K. Guzy—111014133
LMay 28 · 17:00D. Kovtanyuk—11481192K. Guzy—711117113
LMay 27 · 17:00D. Kovtanyuk—91970K. Guzy—1121113
LMay 21 · 21:00D. Kovtanyuk—6760K. Guzy—1111113
LMay 20 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk—412871K. Guzy—111011113
D. Kovtanyuk10
LJul 24 · 21:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6660LJul 24 · 20:00K. Kowalewski1.11111011113D. Kovtanyuk5.05912981LJul 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.05311101572A. Veliiev1.681191213113LJul 24 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.5051111622P. Kos1.43114911113WJul 23 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk6.2011811173K. Kowalewski1.078119151LJul 23 · 20:00K. Guzy1.121111113D. Kovtanyuk4.909990WJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8651111113P. Kos1.78116851LJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk4.55119911102K. Kowalewski1.14911119123WJul 23 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.49751311113B. Gola1.43111111582LJul 23 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk4.15741151A. Veliiev1.1711118113
K. Guzy10
WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala2.60781291K. Guzy1.44111110113WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113LSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 21:05D. Bucko1.83511941K. Guzy1.8811711113WSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192WJul 23 · 20:00K. Guzy1.121111113D. Kovtanyuk4.909990
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