TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12295136
Played Jul 24Finished
Denys Kovtanyuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511114119611211
Pawel Kos
Away
1.43
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Kovtanyuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
511114119611211
H2H Denys Kovtanyuk 19–23 Pawel Kos Denys Kovtanyuk has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:59What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (64%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-23 in 42
Kos
Correct
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovtanyuk 1423 vs Kos 1522
Kos
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovtanyuk 60% vs Kos 20%
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovtanyuk 30% vs Kos 60%
Kos
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovtanyuk +1 · Kos -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (20%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovtanyuk 2.50 / Kos 1.43
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kos)+9.0pp
TT Cup · #12295136
Kovtanyuk2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 20 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back17% 6 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Kos1.43
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 33 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovtanyuk3wins
AwayKos7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovtanyukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKos75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovtanyuk2Kos8n = 10Kos took 8 of 10
S2Kovtanyuk5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovtanyuk5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovtanyuk4Kos2n = 6Kovtanyuk took 4 of 6
S5Kovtanyuk0Kos3n = 3Kos took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovtanyukKosKovtanyuk − KosBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.237.4−4.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovtanyukKosBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 238 vs 305 / 68029.8%44.9%71 / 238 vs 305 / 680Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKovtanyuk 2.50/Kos 1.43
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk—51111113P. Kos—116851
LJul 15 · 21:00D. Kovtanyuk—1011471P. Kos—12811113
LJun 27 · 06:35D. Kovtanyuk—71150P. Kos—1113113
WJun 26 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk—1112113P. Kos—91040
LJun 26 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk—11611292P. Kos—811911113
WMay 28 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk—101111113P. Kos—127661
LMay 27 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk—7460P. Kos—1111113
LMay 27 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk—117111162P. Kos—131193113
LJan 30 · 23:35D. Kovtanyuk—5830P. Kos—1111113
LJan 30 · 17:35D. Kovtanyuk—81281152P. Kos—1110117113
D. Kovtanyuk10
LJul 24 · 21:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6660LJul 24 · 20:00K. Kowalewski1.11111011113D. Kovtanyuk5.05912981LJul 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk3.25861161K. Guzy1.2611118113LJul 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.05311101572A. Veliiev1.681191213113WJul 23 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk6.2011811173K. Kowalewski1.078119151LJul 23 · 20:00K. Guzy1.121111113D. Kovtanyuk4.909990WJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8651111113P. Kos1.78116851LJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk4.55119911102K. Kowalewski1.14911119123WJul 23 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.49751311113B. Gola1.43111111582LJul 23 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk4.15741151A. Veliiev1.1711118113
P. Kos10
LSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101LSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113WSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:35P. Kos2.506990A. Duch1.471111113WSep 6 · 08:35K. Zapala1.517670P. Kos2.401111113WSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 3 · 22:10K. Zapala1.479480P. Kos2.501111113LSep 3 · 21:00P. Kos1.6611912672B. Gola2.107111011113LSep 3 · 19:00D. Bucko1.611111113P. Kos2.156380LJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8651111113P. Kos1.78116851
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