TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12290792
Played Jul 23Finished
Denys Kovtanyuk
Home
6.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1188111191715––
Kamil Kowalewski
Away
1.07
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 95.0% is still 95.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kowalewski to win
95.0%
95.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
1188111191715––
H2H Denys Kovtanyuk 4–9 Kamil Kowalewski Denys Kovtanyuk has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (85%)
Kowalewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Kowalewski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovtanyuk 1402 vs Kowalewski 1623
Kowalewski
Wrong
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovtanyuk 40% vs Kowalewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovtanyuk 20% vs Kowalewski 50%
Kowalewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovtanyuk -1 · Kowalewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Kowalewski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovtanyuk 6.20 / Kowalewski 1.07
Signal prob.5% / 95%
Edge (Kowalewski)+9.7pp
TT Cup · #12290792
Kovtanyuk6.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 18 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Kowalewski1.07
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it68% 45 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovtanyuk2wins
AwayKowalewski8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowalewski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovtanyuk20%1 of 5
AwayKowalewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovtanyuk5Kowalewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovtanyuk2Kowalewski8n = 10Kowalewski took 8 of 10
S3Kovtanyuk3Kowalewski7n = 10Kowalewski took 7 of 10
S4Kovtanyuk3Kowalewski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovtanyukKowalewskiKovtanyuk − KowalewskiBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.238.1−5.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovtanyukKowalewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 237 vs 104 / 17329.5%60.1%70 / 237 vs 104 / 173Avg sets wonper match1.52.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalewskiKovtanyuk 6.20/Kowalewski 1.07
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
95%
Kowalewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovtanyuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk—119911102K. Kowalewski—911119123
LJul 22 · 20:30D. Kovtanyuk—118981K. Kowalewski—71111113
WJul 18 · 16:35D. Kovtanyuk—91211113K. Kowalewski—1110881
LJul 15 · 15:00D. Kovtanyuk—127111162K. Kowalewski—1011139113
LJun 27 · 11:35D. Kovtanyuk—7720K. Kowalewski—1111113
LJun 26 · 19:30D. Kovtanyuk—5960K. Kowalewski—1111113
LMar 24 · 23:10D. Kovtanyuk—6550K. Kowalewski—1111113
WMar 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk—1111113K. Kowalewski—8360
LFeb 12 · 20:30D. Kovtanyuk—119951K. Kowalewski—81111113
LFeb 11 · 21:00D. Kovtanyuk—561151K. Kowalewski—11118113
D. Kovtanyuk10
LJul 24 · 21:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6660LJul 24 · 20:00K. Kowalewski1.11111011113D. Kovtanyuk5.05912981LJul 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk3.25861161K. Guzy1.2611118113LJul 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.05311101572A. Veliiev1.681191213113LJul 24 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.5051111622P. Kos1.43114911113LJul 23 · 20:00K. Guzy1.121111113D. Kovtanyuk4.909990WJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8651111113P. Kos1.78116851LJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk4.55119911102K. Kowalewski1.14911119123WJul 23 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.49751311113B. Gola1.43111111582LJul 23 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk4.15741151A. Veliiev1.1711118113
K. Kowalewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 12:05K. Kowalewski1.3391313113K. Zapala2.8511111191LSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102LSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113WJul 24 · 21:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6660WJul 24 · 20:00K. Kowalewski1.11111011113D. Kovtanyuk5.05912981WJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk4.55119911102K. Kowalewski1.14911119123
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