TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12289680
Played Jul 23Finished
Karol Guzy
Home
1.12
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119119––––
Denys Kovtanyuk
Away
4.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 78.1% is still 78.1%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
78.1%
78.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
60 points played in total.
Set by set
119119119––––
H2H Karol Guzy 21–2 Denys Kovtanyuk Denys Kovtanyuk has won 2 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (81%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-2 in 23
Guzy
Correct
gap of 19 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzy 1667 vs Kovtanyuk 1408
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzy 60% vs Kovtanyuk 40%
Guzy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzy 70% vs Kovtanyuk 30%
Guzy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzy -1 · Kovtanyuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovtanyuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzy 1.12 / Kovtanyuk 4.90
Signal prob.95% / 5%
Edge (Guzy)+13.6pp
TT Cup · #12289680
Guzy1.12
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 134 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it90% 62 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it82% 104 of 127
Kovtanyuk4.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 18 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzy9wins
AwayKovtanyuk1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzy100%6 of 6
AwayKovtanyuk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzy6Kovtanyuk4n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Guzy8Kovtanyuk2n = 10Guzy took 8 of 10
S3Guzy10Kovtanyuk0n = 10Guzy took 10 of 10
S4Guzy4Kovtanyuk2n = 6Guzy took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzyKovtanyukG − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.634.6+7.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzyKovtanyukBasisWin rate · lifetime643 / 1085 vs 70 / 23659.3%29.7%643 / 1085 vs 70 / 236Avg sets wonper match2.21.5per matchAvg pointsper match40.135.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyGuzy 1.12/Kovtanyuk 4.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
95%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 17:30K. Guzy—71112153D. Kovtanyuk—11610131
WJul 18 · 18:05K. Guzy—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6760
LJul 15 · 19:30K. Guzy—81116582D. Kovtanyuk—1191411113
WJun 27 · 09:35K. Guzy—101111113D. Kovtanyuk—129791
WJun 26 · 15:00K. Guzy—111014133D. Kovtanyuk—51212111
WMay 28 · 17:00K. Guzy—711117113D. Kovtanyuk—11481192
WMay 27 · 17:00K. Guzy—1121113D. Kovtanyuk—91970
WMay 21 · 21:00K. Guzy—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6760
WMay 20 · 16:30K. Guzy—111011113D. Kovtanyuk—412871
WMar 14 · 19:05K. Guzy—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—9980
K. Guzy10
WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala2.60781291K. Guzy1.44111110113WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113LSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 21:05D. Bucko1.83511941K. Guzy1.8811711113WSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192WSep 5 · 19:05K. Guzy2.00121211113K. Kowalewski1.711014771
D. Kovtanyuk10
LJul 24 · 21:30K. Kowalewski—1111113D. Kovtanyuk—6660LJul 24 · 20:00K. Kowalewski1.11111011113D. Kovtanyuk5.05912981LJul 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk3.25861161K. Guzy1.2611118113LJul 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.05311101572A. Veliiev1.681191213113LJul 24 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.5051111622P. Kos1.43114911113WJul 23 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk6.2011811173K. Kowalewski1.078119151WJul 23 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk1.8651111113P. Kos1.78116851LJul 23 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk4.55119911102K. Kowalewski1.14911119123WJul 23 · 16:30D. Kovtanyuk2.49751311113B. Gola1.43111111582LJul 23 · 14:30D. Kovtanyuk4.15741151A. Veliiev1.1711118113
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