TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12288700
Played Jul 23Finished
Matous Klimenta
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811113211118511
Jakub Vales
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatous Klimenta above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 81 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Vales at 54.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Matous Klimenta 2–4 Jakub Vales Matous Klimenta has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:19What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Vales
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Klimenta 1754 vs Vales 1846
Vales
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Klimenta 40% vs Vales 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Klimenta 40% vs Vales 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Klimenta -2 · Vales +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Vales) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKlimenta 2.50 / Vales 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Vales)+5.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12288700
Klimenta2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 21 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back29% 8 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Vales1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 128 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it91% 62 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it74% 86 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKlimenta2wins
AwayVales4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderVales leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKlimenta66.7%2 of 3
AwayVales100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Klimenta3Vales3n = 6split evenly
S2Klimenta2Vales4n = 6Vales took 4 of 6
S3Klimenta2Vales4n = 6Vales took 4 of 6
S4Klimenta1Vales2n = 3Vales took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKlimentaValesK − VBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.036.2−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKlimentaValesBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 410 vs 263 / 48155.1%54.7%226 / 410 vs 263 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesKlimenta 2.50/Vales 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WMar 5 · 22:30M. Klimenta—1111113J. Vales—9980
LMar 5 · 19:00M. Klimenta—118311102J. Vales—511118123
LSep 9 · 18:00M. Klimenta—1211791J. Vales—14311113
LJun 4 · 01:30M. Klimenta—9970J. Vales—1111113
LMay 15 · 21:30M. Klimenta—6420J. Vales—1111113
WMay 15 · 20:00M. Klimenta—115118113J. Vales—81151142
M. Klimenta10
LSep 3 · 08:59M. Klimenta1.809860J. Ruzicka1.911111113WSep 3 · 08:30M. Klimenta1.80991111133J. Ruzicka1.91111193112LSep 3 · 07:00M. Klimenta1.80118681M. Huk1.9141111113LSep 3 · 06:00M. Zahradka2.20111597113M. Klimenta1.61313111182WJul 26 · 03:28M. Klimenta1.73911711113M. Huk2.0011411652WJul 26 · 02:30M. Klimenta2.25113711113F. Wolf1.5781111792WJul 26 · 01:30J. Ruzicka1.8395130M. Klimenta1.831111153LJul 26 · 24:00M. Klimenta1.73127661M. Huk2.00101111113WJul 25 · 23:00J. Jr2.2591111682M. Klimenta1.57118811113WJul 23 · 20:58P. Gireth1.44101311432M. Klimenta2.631211811113
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153
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