TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12217773
Played Jul 13Finished
Akito Itagaki
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116911113911119
Luis Carrillo
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
How it is goingAkito Itagaki above · Luis Carrillo below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9
91 points played in total.
H2H Akito Itagaki 0–1 Luis Carrillo Akito Itagaki has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Itagaki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Carrillo form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsItagaki 1.53 / Carrillo 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Itagaki)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12217773
Itagaki1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Carrillo2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeItagaki0wins
AwayCarrillo1wins
Carrillo leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricItagakiCarrilloI − CBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match29.037.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricItagakiCarrilloBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 99 vs 4 / 1752.5%23.5%52 / 99 vs 4 / 17Avg sets wonper match2.01.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.326.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ItagakiItagaki 1.53/Carrillo 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Itagaki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Itagaki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 25 · 10:00A. Itagaki—117561L. Carrillo—41111113
A. Itagaki10
WJul 17 · 10:29A. Itagaki3.00131111113J. Loffler1.361113831LJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340LJul 17 · 08:00M. Danzer1.25811611113A. Itagaki3.7511911552WJul 17 · 07:00A. Itagaki1.16116711113M. Stefanidis4.4541111852WJul 16 · 15:30A. Moreno4.339540A. Itagaki1.201111113LJul 16 · 13:30J. Loffler1.501011117113A. Itagaki2.5012851192LJul 16 · 12:00I. Bertrand1.041111123A. Itagaki9.0062100WJul 16 · 09:00D. Zech4.33981381A. Itagaki1.20111111113WJul 16 · 07:00S. Happek2.7551131182A. Itagaki1.40118116113LJul 14 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.0596130O. Kosolosky1.331111153
L. Carrillo10
LJul 14 · 07:00M. Stefanidis1.98811511113L. Carrillo1.7311611642LJul 13 · 17:30A. Moreno2.2011121113123L. Carrillo1.61514815102LJul 13 · 13:00O. Kosolosky1.111111113L. Carrillo6.006760LJul 13 · 11:00I. Bertrand1.021111113L. Carrillo11.001200LJul 13 · 10:00C. Rossi1.1011911113L. Carrillo6.50911561LJul 13 · 06:30V. Yefimov1.201111113L. Carrillo4.336460LJun 26 · 06:30J. Shim1.251111113L. Carrillo3.755230LJun 25 · 16:30M. Nogami2.381114113L. Carrillo1.5361260LJun 25 · 15:00I. Bertrand1.051111113L. Carrillo8.505560LJun 25 · 13:30L. Carrillo9.0031190K. Fadeev1.041113113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.