TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Makoto Nogami vs Mike Hollo 2-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played May 7Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
5.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911113118711
Mike Hollo
Away
1.13
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMakoto Nogami above · Mike Hollo below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11
90 points played in total.
H2H Makoto Nogami 0–1 Mike Hollo Makoto Nogami has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Hollo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hollo form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 5.50 / Hollo 1.13
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Hollo)+2.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #11853480
Nogami5.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Hollo1.13
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNogami0wins
AwayHollo1wins
Hollo leads 1–0.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricNogamiHolloN − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match29.037.0−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiHolloBasisWin rate · lifetime14 / 54 vs 135 / 22425.9%60.3%14 / 54 vs 135 / 224Avg sets wonper match1.42.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolloNogami 5.50/Hollo 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Hollo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hollo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
L—M. Nogami—3M. Hollo—0
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113
M. Hollo10
WMay 19 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.40119571M. Hollo1.3081111113LMay 19 · 09:45I. Bertrand1.1781111113M. Hollo4.50116661WMay 19 · 08:30J. Lama7.0010790M. Hollo1.081211113WMay 18 · 17:00A. Itagaki3.4011114882M. Hollo1.30221111113LMay 18 · 15:30M. Hollo1.28117100L. Kraus3.501311123WMay 18 · 13:00M. Hollo1.071111113A. Cseri7.507670WMay 18 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.57961121M. Hollo2.2511116113WMay 18 · 09:30J. Loffler2.5011611131M. Hollo1.5081113153LMay 18 · 07:30I. Bertrand1.1712117113M. Hollo4.501081191LMay 8 · 08:30D. Reitspies1.251111113M. Hollo3.753470
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