TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11913132
Played May 19Finished
Akito Itagaki
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911511711––
Mike Hollo
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingAkito Itagaki above · Mike Hollo below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11
73 points played in total.
H2H Akito Itagaki 1–5 Mike Hollo Akito Itagaki has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Hollo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Itagaki form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsItagaki 3.40 / Hollo 1.30
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Hollo)+6.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #11913132
Itagaki3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Hollo1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeItagaki1wins
AwayHollo5wins
3 of 6 to a deciderHollo leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeItagakin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHollo80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Itagaki1Hollo5n = 6Hollo took 5 of 6
S2Itagaki3Hollo3n = 6split evenly
S3Itagaki2Hollo4n = 6Hollo took 4 of 6
S4Itagaki1Hollo3n = 4Hollo took 3 of 4
S5Itagaki1Hollo2n = 3Hollo took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricItagakiHolloI − HBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match34.840.7−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricItagakiHolloBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 72 vs 116 / 18255.6%63.7%40 / 72 vs 116 / 182Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolloItagaki 3.40/Hollo 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Hollo · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hollo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LMay 18 · 17:00A. Itagaki—2M. Hollo—3
LMay 4 · 09:00A. Itagaki—0M. Hollo—3
LApr 30 · 11:00A. Itagaki—1M. Hollo—3
LOct 31 · 12:10A. Itagaki—2M. Hollo—3
WOct 30 · 08:30A. Itagaki—3M. Hollo—2
LSep 29 · 16:35A. Itagaki—0M. Hollo—3
A. Itagaki10
WJul 17 · 10:29A. Itagaki3.00131111113J. Loffler1.361113831LJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340LJul 17 · 08:00M. Danzer1.25811611113A. Itagaki3.7511911552WJul 17 · 07:00A. Itagaki1.16116711113M. Stefanidis4.4541111852WJul 16 · 15:30A. Moreno4.339540A. Itagaki1.201111113LJul 16 · 13:30J. Loffler1.501011117113A. Itagaki2.5012851192LJul 16 · 12:00I. Bertrand1.041111123A. Itagaki9.0062100WJul 16 · 09:00D. Zech4.33981381A. Itagaki1.20111111113WJul 16 · 07:00S. Happek2.7551131182A. Itagaki1.40118116113LJul 14 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.0596130O. Kosolosky1.331111153
M. Hollo10
LMay 19 · 09:45I. Bertrand1.1781111113M. Hollo4.50116661WMay 19 · 08:30J. Lama7.0010790M. Hollo1.081211113WMay 18 · 17:00A. Itagaki3.4011114882M. Hollo1.30221111113LMay 18 · 15:30M. Hollo1.28117100L. Kraus3.501311123WMay 18 · 13:00M. Hollo1.071111113A. Cseri7.507670WMay 18 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.57961121M. Hollo2.2511116113WMay 18 · 09:30J. Loffler2.5011611131M. Hollo1.5081113153LMay 18 · 07:30I. Bertrand1.1712117113M. Hollo4.501081191LMay 8 · 08:30D. Reitspies1.251111113M. Hollo3.753470LMay 7 · 17:00L. Kraus6.5071111113M. Hollo1.10118761
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