TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vit Benak vs Filip Strejc 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411411117117119
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVit Benak to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Benak above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Vit Benak at 56.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vit Benak 22–16 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5456.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-16 in 38
Benak
Correct
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1670 vs Strejc 1591
Benak
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 60% vs Strejc 0%
Benak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 50% vs Strejc 10%
Benak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +1 · Strejc -5
Strejc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Benak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.666 / Strejc 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Benak)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226867
Benak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite38% won 12 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it43% 9 of 21
Strejc2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 46 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak4wins
AwayStrejc6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrejc leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak50%4 of 8
AwayStrejcn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak8Strejc2n = 10Benak took 8 of 10
S2Benak4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Benak4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S4Benak4Strejc5n = 9Strejc took 5 of 9
S5Benak2Strejc4n = 6Strejc took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakStrejcB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.943.4−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 144 vs 207 / 46655.6%44.4%80 / 144 vs 207 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.67/Strejc 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 13:25V. Benak48119711102F. Strejc49911116123
WAug 6 · 17:25V. Benak46111113113F. Strejc35681561
LJun 1 · 18:15V. Benak51111196142F. Strejc54791111163
WJun 1 · 15:55V. Benak331111113F. Strejc184680
LApr 27 · 18:45V. Benak3711114111F. Strejc4691311133
LApr 27 · 15:55V. Benak28114671F. Strejc3961111113
LApr 20 · 14:55V. Benak4561181192F. Strejc47117117113
WApr 15 · 18:00V. Benak49117119113F. Strejc4281151172
WApr 15 · 16:55V. Benak51116167113F. Strejc50811141162
LApr 11 · 07:25V. Benak4135151172F. Strejc541111138113
V. Benak10
LOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 15:55V. Benak1.61811871T. Flicek2.2011911113WSep 27 · 14:43M. Cerny1.83611741V. Benak1.8711711113LSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102WSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121LSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172WSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak1.83961211133T. Flicek1.831111105112WSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak1.80111411123T. Flicek1.917165101LSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113
F. Strejc10
WOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071LSep 28 · 21:25M. Stusek1.851113113F. Strejc1.8571170LSep 28 · 20:50F. Strejc2.75511841J. Zlamal1.4011311113LSep 28 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.61991111113F. Strejc2.2011116472LSep 28 · 18:50M. Stusek1.801111113F. Strejc1.919980LSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113WSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102LSep 27 · 11:55M. Cerny1.91119116113F. Strejc1.8061161172LSep 27 · 11:25O. Kadavy1.91115411123F. Strejc1.80711117102LSep 25 · 21:30F. Strejc2.509660T. Vorisek1.501111113
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