TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vit Benak vs Tomas Flicek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119811711––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeVit Benak to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVit Benak above · Tomas Flicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Vit Benak at 58.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vit Benak 8–5 Tomas Flicek Tomas Flicek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4158.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Benak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Benak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1678 vs Flicek 1604
Benak
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 60% vs Flicek 40%
Benak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 50% vs Flicek 20%
Benak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +2 · Flicek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Benak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.615 / Flicek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Benak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226907
Benak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite38% won 12 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it43% 9 of 21
Flicek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog18% won 2 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak7wins
AwayFlicek3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBenak leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak57.1%4 of 7
AwayFlicek0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak7Flicek3n = 10Benak took 7 of 10
S2Benak4Flicek6n = 10Flicek took 6 of 10
S3Benak6Flicek4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S4Benak5Flicek5n = 10split evenly
S5Benak4Flicek2n = 6Benak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakFlicekB − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.20.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakFlicekBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 145 vs 62 / 13455.9%46.3%81 / 145 vs 62 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.61/Flicek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Flicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak51961211133T. Flicek481111105112
WSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak48111411123T. Flicek387165101
LDec 11 · 19:40V. Benak4711713972T. Flicek517111111113
LDec 11 · 16:25V. Benak37111222102T. Flicek517101111123
WNov 27 · 19:10V. Benak3911611113T. Flicek25611441
WNov 27 · 17:55V. Benak45611611113T. Flicek4511611982
LNov 13 · 19:35V. Benak25112571T. Flicek4071111113
WNov 13 · 16:55V. Benak3911116113T. Flicek32981141
WOct 22 · 18:30V. Benak48117118113T. Flicek4591161182
WOct 22 · 15:55V. Benak43312116113T. Flicek47111061192
V. Benak10
WOct 1 · 14:55V. Benak1.67441111113F. Strejc2.1011117792WSep 27 · 14:43M. Cerny1.83611741V. Benak1.8711711113LSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102WSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121LSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172WSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak1.83961211133T. Flicek1.831111105112WSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak1.80111411123T. Flicek1.917165101LSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113LAug 6 · 18:35D. Jicha1.3851511113V. Benak2.801113561
T. Flicek10
LOct 1 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.571111113T. Flicek2.255870LSep 24 · 17:25T. Flicek1.8311116132O. Kadavy1.83681111113WSep 24 · 15:55M. Cerny1.731116671T. Flicek2.0061811113LSep 24 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.73611126113T. Flicek2.00117101152WSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113LSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 15:55L. Soucek1.911114113T. Flicek1.8041280LSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.5311912113T. Flicek2.388111051LSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak1.83961211133T. Flicek1.831111105112LSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak1.80111411123T. Flicek1.917165101
Upcoming Matches
V. Benak
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T. Flicek
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