TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091852
Played Sep 7Finished
Vit Benak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11714161151210––
Tomas Flicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVit Benak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Benak above · Tomas Flicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 86 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vit Benak at 55.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vit Benak 6–5 Tomas Flicek Tomas Flicek has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:40What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1578 vs Flicek 1625
Flicek
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 20% vs Flicek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 40% vs Flicek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak -3 · Flicek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.80 / Flicek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13091852
Benak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite43% won 19 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it58% 15 of 26
Flicek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 3 of 10
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak5wins
AwayFlicek5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak37.5%3 of 8
AwayFlicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak8Flicek2n = 10Benak took 8 of 10
S2Benak4Flicek6n = 10Flicek took 6 of 10
S3Benak5Flicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Benak4Flicek6n = 10Flicek took 6 of 10
S5Benak3Flicek4n = 7Flicek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakFlicekB − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.743.1−1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakFlicekBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 138 vs 60 / 12555.1%48%76 / 138 vs 60 / 125Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.80/Flicek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LDec 11 · 19:40V. Benak—11713972T. Flicek—7111111103
LDec 11 · 16:25V. Benak—111222102T. Flicek—7101111123
WNov 27 · 19:10V. Benak—11611113T. Flicek—611441
WNov 27 · 17:55V. Benak—611611103T. Flicek—11611982
LNov 13 · 19:35V. Benak—112571T. Flicek—71111113
WNov 13 · 16:55V. Benak—11116113T. Flicek—981141
WOct 22 · 18:30V. Benak—117118113T. Flicek—91161182
WOct 22 · 15:55V. Benak—312116113T. Flicek—111061192
LOct 15 · 15:25V. Benak—113119112T. Flicek—511911133
LOct 8 · 17:25V. Benak—119101192T. Flicek—811125113
V. Benak10
LSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113LAug 6 · 18:35D. Jicha1.3851511113V. Benak2.801113561WAug 6 · 17:25F. Strejc2.10681561V. Benak1.67111113113LAug 6 · 16:25V. Benak1.738660D. Jicha2.001111113WAug 6 · 14:55T. Vorisek1.80911911102V. Benak1.91119114123LAug 4 · 18:39D. Jicha2.20311119123V. Benak1.61114811102LAug 4 · 17:25D. Jicha2.201511118123V. Benak1.61178911102WAug 4 · 16:25V. Benak2.00811811113T. Vorisek1.7311411892WAug 4 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.83911661V. Benak1.8311511113
T. Flicek10
LSep 7 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.731411113T. Flicek2.0012780LSep 7 · 15:25T. Flicek2.0017111172D. Jicha1.73111169113LSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113WSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113LSep 2 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.80111110113T. Flicek1.91341251LSep 2 · 15:25T. Flicek2.10112971D. Jicha1.6781111113LAug 27 · 18:40T. Vorisek1.80581111113T. Flicek1.9111117582WAug 27 · 17:25T. Flicek1.838121011113F. Strejc1.83111012882LAug 27 · 15:55T. Vorisek1.831111113T. Flicek1.838870WAug 27 · 15:25L. Soucek2.00710111482T. Flicek1.731112512113
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