TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs Vit Benak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117711411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Vit Benak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-9
Point 66 set 4, 4-9
66 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Martin Cerny 1–0 Vit Benak Vit Benak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Cerny beat Benak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.83 / Benak 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13206979
Cerny1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 176 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it97% 90 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it85% 127 of 150
Benak1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCerny1wins
AwayBenak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderCerny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCernyBenakC − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match49.045.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 861 vs 79 / 14358.2%55.2%501 / 861 vs 79 / 143Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.140.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.83/Benak 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny49711119113V. Benak4511881172
M. Cerny10
WSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841WSep 27 · 11:55M. Cerny1.91119116113F. Strejc1.8061161172WSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172LSep 25 · 10:29O. Kadavy1.36158911113M. Cerny3.00131111502WSep 25 · 08:55J. Kocab3.2511109101M. Cerny1.3341211123LSep 25 · 08:25O. Kadavy1.3311127113M. Cerny3.256101181WSep 25 · 07:25M. Cerny1.44511812123D. Vesecky2.631141110102LSep 24 · 16:55M. Cerny1.83791171D. Bochnak1.8311111113LSep 24 · 15:55M. Cerny1.731116671T. Flicek2.0061811113WSep 24 · 14:55M. Cerny3.5011911123O. Kadavy1.285115101
V. Benak10
LSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102WSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121LSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172WSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak1.83961211133T. Flicek1.831111105112WSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak1.80111411123T. Flicek1.917165101LSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113LAug 6 · 18:35D. Jicha1.3851511113V. Benak2.801113561WAug 6 · 17:25F. Strejc2.10681561V. Benak1.67111113113LAug 6 · 16:25V. Benak1.738660D. Jicha2.001111113
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