TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs David Bochnak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911111711––
David Bochnak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 64–67 David Bochnak Martin Cerny has won 64 of their 131 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-67 in 131
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 3 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1853 vs Bochnak 1769
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Bochnak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 80% vs Bochnak 40%
Cerny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Bochnak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.83 / Bochnak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13188664
Cerny1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Bochnak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny8wins
AwayBochnak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny75%6 of 8
AwayBochnakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny8Bochnak2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Cerny5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S3Cerny6Bochnak4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S4Cerny7Bochnak1n = 8Cerny took 7 of 8
S5Cerny2Bochnak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyBochnakC − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.6+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 853 vs 357 / 58058.2%61.6%496 / 853 vs 357 / 580Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.83/Bochnak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 16:25M. Cerny4411951182D. Bochnak48711118113
WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny4991112173D. Bochnak4111510151
WSep 19 · 14:39M. Cerny351113113D. Bochnak2991190
WSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny4311119123D. Bochnak388911101
WSep 17 · 17:25M. Cerny4111811113D. Bochnak37911981
WSep 14 · 19:55M. Cerny548101411113D. Bochnak49111212592
WSep 13 · 19:25M. Cerny47111011153D. Bochnak325122131
LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny36111130112D. Bochnak42341111133
WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny45114811113D. Bochnak4161111672
WSep 6 · 09:25M. Cerny331111113D. Bochnak199640
M. Cerny10
LSep 24 · 15:55M. Cerny1.731116671T. Flicek2.0061811113WSep 24 · 14:55M. Cerny3.5011911123O. Kadavy1.285115101WSep 23 · 18:35D. Vesecky2.1011761172M. Cerny1.65411118113WSep 23 · 17:25L. Soucek2.20411491M. Cerny1.6111811113LSep 23 · 16:25M. Cerny1.9111951182D. Bochnak1.80711118113WSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113WSep 23 · 14:24M. Cerny1.3317114113J. Kocab3.251581191WSep 23 · 12:55J. Kocab3.403720M. Cerny1.301111113WSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113WSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950
D. Bochnak10
LSep 24 · 16:25O. Kadavy1.6111911113D. Bochnak2.20811591WSep 24 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.73611126113T. Flicek2.00117101152LSep 23 · 18:05D. Bochnak1.36118981L. Soucek3.0041111113LSep 23 · 16:55D. Vesecky2.3891211113D. Bochnak1.531110391WSep 23 · 16:25M. Cerny1.9111951182D. Bochnak1.80711118113WSep 23 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.5351111113L. Soucek2.38118291WSep 20 · 22:10M. Brozek2.50911771D. Bochnak1.5011411113LSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151LSep 20 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.4481111982J. Zacharda2.63118511113LSep 20 · 18:55M. Brozek2.75116117113D. Bochnak1.4091121172
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