TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Soucek vs Martin Cerny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Lukas Soucek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411118411911––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Soucek above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 60.1%
69 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Soucek 1542 vs Cerny 1865
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 323 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Soucek 40% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Soucek 40% vs Cerny 90%
Cerny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Soucek -3 · Cerny -1
Soucek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSoucek 2.20 / Cerny 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13183250
Soucek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 6 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Cerny1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 170 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it85% 123 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSoucekCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 172 vs 493 / 84945.4%58.1%78 / 172 vs 493 / 849Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernySoucek 2.20/Cerny 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Soucek10
WSep 23 · 18:05D. Bochnak1.36118981L. Soucek3.0041111113LSep 23 · 15:55D. Vesecky1.7311112113L. Soucek2.00281181LSep 23 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.5351111113L. Soucek2.38118291LSep 15 · 18:25O. Kadavy1.531117113L. Soucek2.3841590WSep 15 · 16:55L. Soucek2.20119811123O. Kadavy1.61511119102WSep 15 · 15:55L. Soucek1.911114113T. Flicek1.8041280LSep 15 · 14:55L. Soucek2.201111881F. Strejc1.6191311113WSep 13 · 10:29T. Vorisek1.531251191L. Soucek2.3814115113LSep 13 · 08:55T. Vorisek1.5711117113L. Soucek2.25541171WSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc1.61671131L. Soucek2.2011117113
M. Cerny10
LSep 23 · 16:25M. Cerny1.9111951182D. Bochnak1.80711118113WSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113WSep 23 · 14:24M. Cerny1.3317114113J. Kocab3.251581191WSep 23 · 12:55J. Kocab3.403720M. Cerny1.301111113WSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113WSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950WSep 20 · 22:40M. Cerny1.551111911113J. Zacharda2.2578111352WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151WSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113WSep 20 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.388490M. Cerny1.531111113
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