TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs David Bochnak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911511118811
David Bochnak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 61.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 64–66 David Bochnak Martin Cerny has won 64 of their 130 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:31What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-66 in 130
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 2 in 130, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1879 vs Bochnak 1788
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 100% vs Bochnak 40%
Cerny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 100% vs Bochnak 50%
Cerny
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +10 · Bochnak +2
Cerny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.91 / Bochnak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13183252
Cerny1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 48 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Bochnak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 131 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 100 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny9wins
AwayBochnak1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny85.7%6 of 7
AwayBochnak0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Bochnak3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny6Bochnak4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny7Bochnak3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Cerny6Bochnak2n = 8Cerny took 6 of 8
S5Cerny3Bochnak1n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyBochnakC − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.137.7+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 848 vs 357 / 58058.1%61.6%493 / 848 vs 357 / 580Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.91/Bochnak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny4991112173D. Bochnak4111510151
WSep 19 · 14:39M. Cerny351113113D. Bochnak2991190
WSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny4311119123D. Bochnak388911101
WSep 17 · 17:25M. Cerny4111811113D. Bochnak37911981
WSep 14 · 19:55M. Cerny548101411113D. Bochnak49111212592
WSep 13 · 19:25M. Cerny47111011153D. Bochnak325122131
LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny36111130112D. Bochnak42341111133
WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny45114811113D. Bochnak4161111672
WSep 6 · 09:25M. Cerny331111113D. Bochnak199640
WSep 4 · 19:55M. Cerny485111110113D. Bochnak4911991282
M. Cerny10
WSep 23 · 17:25L. Soucek2.20411491M. Cerny1.6111811113WSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113WSep 23 · 14:24M. Cerny1.3317114113J. Kocab3.251581191WSep 23 · 12:55J. Kocab3.403720M. Cerny1.301111113WSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113WSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950WSep 20 · 22:40M. Cerny1.551111911113J. Zacharda2.2578111352WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151WSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113WSep 20 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.388490M. Cerny1.531111113
D. Bochnak10
LSep 23 · 16:55D. Vesecky2.3891211113D. Bochnak1.531110391WSep 23 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.5351111113L. Soucek2.38118291WSep 20 · 22:10M. Brozek2.50911771D. Bochnak1.5011411113LSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151LSep 20 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.4481111982J. Zacharda2.63118511113LSep 20 · 18:55M. Brozek2.75116117113D. Bochnak1.4091121172LSep 19 · 14:39D. Bochnak1.5891190M. Cerny2.101113113WSep 19 · 12:55M. Brozek2.63115911102D. Bochnak1.44711113123LSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 11:25D. Bochnak1.301111113J. Kocab3.401360
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.