TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Martin Cerny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
David Vesecky
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811411118118311
Martin Cerny
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 86 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 59.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 54–73 Martin Cerny David Vesecky has won 54 of their 127 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Cerny beat Vesecky 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-73 in 127
Cerny
Correct
gap of 19 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1585 vs Cerny 1868
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 283 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 20% vs Cerny 100%
Cerny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Cerny 90%
Cerny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky -4 · Cerny +8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.10 / Cerny 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cerny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13183254
Vesecky2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 58 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Cerny1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 170 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it85% 123 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky1wins
AwayCerny9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeseckyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCerny87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Vesecky3Cerny3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyCernyV − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.238.9−9.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 644 vs 491 / 84655.3%58%356 / 644 vs 491 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVesecky 2.10/Cerny 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 11:25D. Vesecky206950M. Cerny331111113
LSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky29118551M. Cerny4291111113
LSep 7 · 12:25D. Vesecky144460M. Cerny331111113
WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky4291111113M. Cerny30118381
LSep 2 · 11:25D. Vesecky46111141282M. Cerny541391110113
LAug 31 · 14:45D. Vesecky175750M. Cerny331111113
LAug 31 · 10:55D. Vesecky49111461352M. Cerny545161111113
LAug 28 · 06:55D. Vesecky2376100M. Cerny341111123
LAug 27 · 08:25D. Vesecky23631131M. Cerny3911116113
LAug 26 · 14:05D. Vesecky29711381M. Cerny3711411113
D. Vesecky10
LSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891LSep 23 · 13:55P. Benes—111116113D. Vesecky—761891LSep 23 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.574450P. Benes2.251111113LSep 23 · 11:55J. Kocab1.441114113D. Vesecky2.6351280LSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950WSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113WSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111LSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113WSep 7 · 13:58J. Zacharda2.0021911392D. Vesecky1.731117211113
M. Cerny10
WSep 23 · 14:24M. Cerny1.3317114113J. Kocab3.251581191WSep 23 · 12:55J. Kocab3.403720M. Cerny1.301111113WSep 23 · 12:25P. Benes3.007460M. Cerny1.361111113WSep 23 · 11:25M. Cerny1.401111113D. Vesecky2.756950WSep 20 · 22:40M. Cerny1.551111911113J. Zacharda2.2578111352WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151WSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113WSep 20 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.388490M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 19 · 14:39D. Bochnak1.5891190M. Cerny2.101113113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113
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