TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171189111113115
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 97 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Martin Cerny at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 20–18 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cerny beat Zacharda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-18 in 38
Cerny
Correct
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1836 vs Zacharda 1742
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 80% vs Zacharda 60%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 70% vs Zacharda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +4 · Zacharda +2
Cerny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.55 / Zacharda 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Cerny)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13166823
Cerny1.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 171 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it97% 86 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it84% 122 of 145
Zacharda2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 25 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny5wins
AwayZacharda5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny71.4%5 of 7
AwayZacharda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Cerny6Zacharda4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S4Cerny2Zacharda4n = 6Zacharda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyZachardaC − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.733.4+4.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 846 vs 132 / 27557.9%48%490 / 846 vs 132 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.55/Zacharda 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 19:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda218490
LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny30119731J. Zacharda4291111113
LSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny47111110692J. Zacharda45921211113
WSep 17 · 12:50M. Cerny43111110113J. Zacharda33851281
LSep 14 · 19:25M. Cerny4011154101J. Zacharda49131311123
LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny33951181J. Zacharda4111118113
WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda148330
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny361111143J. Zacharda2163120
LSep 11 · 10:20M. Cerny48881111102J. Zacharda49111196123
WSep 8 · 13:25M. Cerny341211113J. Zacharda1910270
M. Cerny10
WSep 20 · 21:25M. Cerny1.9191112173D. Bochnak1.8011510151WSep 20 · 19:55M. Brozek4.003590M. Cerny1.221111113WSep 20 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.388490M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 19 · 14:39D. Bochnak1.5891190M. Cerny2.101113113LSep 19 · 13:25J. Kocab3.001011911113M. Cerny1.3612911382WSep 19 · 12:25M. Cerny2.1011119123D. Bochnak1.678911101WSep 19 · 10:55M. Brozek3.758530M. Cerny1.251111113LSep 17 · 18:05O. Kadavy1.331113113M. Cerny3.2551170WSep 17 · 17:25D. Bochnak1.67911981M. Cerny2.1011811113LSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113
J. Zacharda10
WSep 20 · 20:55M. Brozek1.809640J. Zacharda1.911111113WSep 20 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.4481111982J. Zacharda2.63118511113LSep 20 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.388490M. Cerny1.531111113LSep 17 · 18:35D. Bochnak1.44111179113J. Zacharda2.6397111182WSep 17 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.61612100J. Zacharda2.201114123WSep 17 · 16:25M. Cerny1.53119731J. Zacharda2.3891111113LSep 17 · 15:25J. Zacharda2.63671251D. Bochnak1.44111110113WSep 17 · 14:00M. Cerny1.53111110692J. Zacharda2.38921211113LSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113WSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113
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