TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Cerny vs Filip Strejc 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116911116611117
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Martin Cerny at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strejc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1825 vs Strejc 1647
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Strejc 20%
Cerny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 60% vs Strejc 30%
Cerny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Strejc -4
Strejc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.91 / Strejc 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cerny)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13203485
Cerny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 47 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Strejc1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite39% won 18 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 859 vs 213 / 47058.1%45.3%499 / 859 vs 213 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.91/Strejc 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cerny won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Cerny10
WSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841WSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172LSep 25 · 10:29O. Kadavy1.36158911113M. Cerny3.00131111502WSep 25 · 08:55J. Kocab3.2511109101M. Cerny1.3341211123LSep 25 · 08:25O. Kadavy1.3311127113M. Cerny3.256101181WSep 25 · 07:25M. Cerny1.44511812123D. Vesecky2.631141110102LSep 24 · 16:55M. Cerny1.83791171D. Bochnak1.8311111113LSep 24 · 15:55M. Cerny1.731116671T. Flicek2.0061811113WSep 24 · 14:55M. Cerny3.5011911123O. Kadavy1.285115101WSep 23 · 18:35D. Vesecky2.1011761172M. Cerny1.65411118113
F. Strejc10
LSep 27 · 11:25O. Kadavy1.91115411123F. Strejc1.80711117102LSep 25 · 21:30F. Strejc2.509660T. Vorisek1.501111113LSep 25 · 20:50M. Stusek1.80116211123F. Strejc1.91611118102LSep 25 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2010850D. Jicha1.611211113WSep 25 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.617111112142F. Strejc2.20117914163WSep 18 · 21:30F. Strejc2.001111113M. Stusek1.734940LSep 18 · 20:50F. Cernota1.611111911113F. Strejc2.2013711992LSep 18 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2012681162D. Jicha1.611011117113WSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek1.808850F. Strejc1.911111113LSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113
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