TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Strejc vs Tomas Vorisek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 54 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Tomas Vorisek at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 87–101 Tomas Vorisek Filip Strejc has won 87 of their 188 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Strejc beat Vorisek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vorisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
87-101 in 188
Vorisek
Correct
gap of 14 in 188, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1657 vs Vorisek 1665
Vorisek
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 40% vs Vorisek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 40% vs Vorisek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc -2 · Vorisek -3
Vorisek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vorisek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 2.50 / Vorisek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vorisek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13197153
Strejc2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 47 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Vorisek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 97 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it86% 74 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc3wins
AwayVorisek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVorisek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc42.9%3 of 7
AwayVorisek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc7Vorisek3n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S2Strejc2Vorisek8n = 10Vorisek took 8 of 10
S3Strejc5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Strejc3Vorisek7n = 10Vorisek took 7 of 10
S5Strejc2Vorisek3n = 5Vorisek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcVorisekS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.744.9−4.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 469 vs 406 / 80345.4%50.6%213 / 469 vs 406 / 803Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekStrejc 2.50/Vorisek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vorisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 18:20F. Strejc57117914163T. Vorisek557111112142
LSep 13 · 06:55F. Strejc32791241T. Vorisek43111110113
WSep 11 · 21:25F. Strejc44112119113T. Vorisek4471191162
LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc34119771T. Vorisek4181111113
LSep 4 · 18:20F. Strejc42111111182T. Vorisek49681113113
LSep 2 · 14:55F. Strejc4211741192T. Vorisek47711117113
LAug 30 · 16:25F. Strejc39111011252T. Vorisek49612911113
LAug 28 · 18:50F. Strejc35911781T. Vorisek3911611113
LAug 27 · 14:55F. Strejc381281171T. Vorisek4414118113
WAug 26 · 20:55F. Strejc44111011123T. Vorisek388128101
F. Strejc10
LSep 25 · 20:50M. Stusek1.80116211123F. Strejc1.91611118102LSep 25 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2010850D. Jicha1.611211113WSep 25 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.617111112142F. Strejc2.20117914163WSep 18 · 21:30F. Strejc2.001111113M. Stusek1.734940LSep 18 · 20:50F. Cernota1.611111911113F. Strejc2.2013711992LSep 18 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2012681162D. Jicha1.611011117113WSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek1.808850F. Strejc1.911111113LSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113WSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113
T. Vorisek10
LSep 25 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.80116761D. Jicha1.9171111113LSep 25 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.735111081M. Stusek2.0011912113LSep 25 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.617111112142F. Strejc2.20117914163WSep 22 · 22:05T. Vorisek1.671111113P. Silhan2.104680WSep 22 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.2581312113J. Zlamal1.5711111061WSep 22 · 19:55P. Silhan2.10911851T. Vorisek1.6711711113LSep 22 · 19:25M. Stusek1.801111113T. Vorisek1.917620LSep 21 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.6791211113T. Vorisek2.101110661LSep 21 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113T. Vorisek2.108460WSep 21 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.67101111113O. Kadavy2.10128891
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