TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Stusek vs Filip Strejc 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1166112111181210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 88 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 70–71 Filip Strejc Martin Stusek has won 70 of their 141 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:46What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-71 in 141
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1719 vs Strejc 1667
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Strejc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 50% vs Strejc 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +1 · Strejc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.80 / Strejc 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stusek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13194027
Stusek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 59 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Strejc1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 47 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayStrejc5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrejc75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Strejc4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek3Strejc7n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S3Stusek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek3Strejc1n = 4Stusek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekStrejcStusek − StrejcBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.736.2−2.5per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 683 vs 213 / 46847.4%45.5%324 / 683 vs 213 / 468Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.80/Strejc 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 21:30M. Stusek174940F. Strejc331111113
LSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek218850F. Strejc331111113
WSep 13 · 10:04M. Stusek3911411133F. Strejc379116111
LSep 13 · 09:25M. Stusek33117781F. Strejc4291111113
LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek4314461272F. Strejc5512111110113
LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek28101080F. Strejc351212113
WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek361411113F. Strejc2912980
WSep 4 · 19:50M. Stusek341112113F. Strejc2571080
WAug 30 · 17:25M. Stusek341211113F. Strejc2510870
WAug 28 · 21:40M. Stusek521161113113F. Strejc48131151182
M. Stusek10
WSep 25 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.735111081M. Stusek2.0011912113LSep 22 · 22:33M. Stusek2.207920J. Zlamal1.611111113WSep 22 · 20:55P. Silhan2.101141071M. Stusek1.6761112113LSep 22 · 20:25J. Zlamal1.531111127133M. Stusek2.381381011112WSep 22 · 19:25M. Stusek1.801111113T. Vorisek1.917620LSep 21 · 21:58M. Stusek1.7341171142O. Kadavy2.00113115113WSep 21 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83711811153O. Kadavy1.83117118132WSep 21 · 19:55M. Stusek2.75114119143J. Zlamal1.40911711122LSep 21 · 18:55M. Stusek1.8313990T. Vorisek1.831511113LSep 18 · 21:30F. Strejc2.001111113M. Stusek1.734940
F. Strejc10
LSep 25 · 21:30F. Strejc2.509660T. Vorisek1.501111113LSep 25 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2010850D. Jicha1.611211113WSep 25 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.617111112142F. Strejc2.20117914163WSep 18 · 21:30F. Strejc2.001111113M. Stusek1.734940LSep 18 · 20:50F. Cernota1.611111911113F. Strejc2.2013711992LSep 18 · 19:50F. Strejc2.2012681162D. Jicha1.611011117113WSep 18 · 18:20M. Stusek1.808850F. Strejc1.911111113LSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113WSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc1.8081080O. Kadavy1.911112113
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