Martin Cerny vs Vit Benak 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT Cup

Played Sep 27Finished

Martin Cerny

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

711118118911117

Vit Benak

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Vit Benak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Vit Benak below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vit Benak at 54.0%

94 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:46

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Benak

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Cerny 1819 vs Benak 1653

Cerny

Correct

both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Cerny 40% vs Benak 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Cerny 50% vs Benak 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Cerny -1 · Benak +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benak)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Benak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCerny 2.00 / Benak 1.73

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Benak)+0.3pp

TT Cup · #13202830

Cerny2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 25)

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog41% won 47 of 114

Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 62

Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38

Benak1.73

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 20 days ago (Sep 07) · back after a break

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite43% won 16 of 37

Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8

Up 1–0, closes it52% 12 of 23

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricCernyBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 858 vs 78 / 14058%55.7%498 / 858 vs 78 / 140Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.140.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Benak

Cerny 2.00/Benak 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Benak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Cerny won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Cerny10