TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vit Benak vs Ondrej Kadavy 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711115511811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVit Benak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVit Benak above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Vit Benak at 54.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vit Benak 14–10 Ondrej Kadavy Ondrej Kadavy has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4654.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Benak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1664 vs Kadavy 1778
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 60% vs Kadavy 80%
Kadavy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 50% vs Kadavy 70%
Kadavy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak -1 · Kadavy +4
Kadavy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.727 / Kadavy 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226901
Benak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite38% won 12 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it43% 9 of 21
Kadavy2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 35 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak6wins
AwayKadavy4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak80%4 of 5
AwayKadavy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak5Kadavy5n = 10split evenly
S2Benak5Kadavy5n = 10split evenly
S3Benak7Kadavy3n = 10Benak took 7 of 10
S4Benak3Kadavy5n = 8Kadavy took 5 of 8
S5Benak2Kadavy1n = 3Benak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakKadavyB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.7+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 146 vs 193 / 33255.5%58.1%81 / 146 vs 193 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.73/Kadavy 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak4211611143O. Kadavy339111121
WAug 4 · 14:55V. Benak3811511113O. Kadavy32911661
WJul 26 · 11:55V. Benak331111113O. Kadavy238690
LJul 25 · 18:05V. Benak368111161O. Kadavy3711213113
LJul 25 · 14:55V. Benak207490O. Kadavy331111113
LJul 6 · 07:25V. Benak4111117572O. Kadavy50891111113
WNov 7 · 17:55V. Benak4011511133O. Kadavy346116111
WAug 1 · 11:55V. Benak49711137113O. Kadavy44117111142
WJul 30 · 11:25V. Benak50615117113O. Kadavy43111351132
LJul 25 · 08:55V. Benak4513121191O. Kadavy4815148113
V. Benak10
LOct 1 · 15:55V. Benak1.61811871T. Flicek2.2011911113WOct 1 · 14:55V. Benak1.67441111113F. Strejc2.1011117792WSep 27 · 14:43M. Cerny1.83611741V. Benak1.8711711113LSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102WSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121LSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172WSep 7 · 17:53V. Benak1.83961211133T. Flicek1.831111105112WSep 7 · 16:55V. Benak1.80111411123T. Flicek1.917165101LSep 7 · 15:55V. Benak1.835640D. Jicha1.831111113LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113
O. Kadavy10
LOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071WOct 1 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.571111113T. Flicek2.255870WSep 28 · 14:25O. Kadavy1.80111135113D. Bochnak1.9176111122WSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261LSep 28 · 10:55D. Bochnak2.10116811113O. Kadavy1.6741111952WSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113LSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841LSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121WSep 27 · 11:25O. Kadavy1.91115411123F. Strejc1.80711117102
Upcoming Matches
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O. Kadavy
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