TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Strejc vs Ondrej Kadavy 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911119115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 17–10 Ondrej Kadavy Ondrej Kadavy has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Strejc beat Kadavy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickContradict
Sealed 18:2154.0%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 1.4pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strejc
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-10 in 27
Strejc
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1615 vs Kadavy 1769
Kadavy
Wrong
both rated, 153 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 40% vs Kadavy 80%
Kadavy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 30% vs Kadavy 60%
Kadavy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc +2 · Kadavy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kadavy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 1.80 / Kadavy 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kadavy)+1.4pp
TT Cup · #13229438
Strejc1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite37% won 17 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Kadavy1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 35 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc5wins
AwayKadavy5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc100%3 of 3
AwayKadavy71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc3Kadavy7n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S2Strejc7Kadavy3n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S3Strejc5Kadavy5n = 10split evenly
S4Strejc6Kadavy1n = 7Strejc took 6 of 7
S5Strejc0Kadavy3n = 3Kadavy took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcKadavyS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.0+0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 469 vs 194 / 33444.6%58.1%209 / 469 vs 194 / 334Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyStrejc 1.80/Kadavy 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc4281112113O. Kadavy341161071
LSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc257990O. Kadavy331111113
LSep 27 · 11:25F. Strejc46711117102O. Kadavy43115411123
LSep 15 · 16:25F. Strejc2681080O. Kadavy341112113
WSep 11 · 22:33F. Strejc351111133O. Kadavy2889110
LSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc4471161192O. Kadavy49119117113
WSep 1 · 14:55F. Strejc4211512143O. Kadavy4181110121
LAug 21 · 18:55F. Strejc46811101162O. Kadavy46115127113
WAug 19 · 18:30F. Strejc3512111113O. Kadavy331081141
WAug 19 · 16:55F. Strejc3851111113O. Kadavy29117651
F. Strejc10
WOct 1 · 17:25T. Flicek1.9194120F. Strejc1.801111143WOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071LOct 1 · 14:55V. Benak1.67441111113F. Strejc2.1011117792LSep 28 · 21:25M. Stusek1.851113113F. Strejc1.8571170LSep 28 · 20:50F. Strejc2.75511841J. Zlamal1.4011311113LSep 28 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.61991111113F. Strejc2.2011116472LSep 28 · 18:50M. Stusek1.801111113F. Strejc1.919980LSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113WSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102LSep 27 · 11:55M. Cerny1.91119116113F. Strejc1.8061161172
O. Kadavy10
WOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071WOct 1 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.571111113T. Flicek2.255870WSep 28 · 14:25O. Kadavy1.80111135113D. Bochnak1.9176111122WSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261LSep 28 · 10:55D. Bochnak2.10116811113O. Kadavy1.6741111952WSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113LSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841LSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121
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