TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Flicek vs Filip Strejc 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9114111214––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Strejc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Flicek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 61 set 3, 12-14 · our read held Filip Strejc at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Flicek 17–20 Filip Strejc Tomas Flicek has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strejc
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Strejc
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flicek 1611 vs Strejc 1601
Flicek
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flicek 40% vs Strejc 20%
Flicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flicek 30% vs Strejc 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flicek +1 · Strejc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Strejc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlicek 1.909 / Strejc 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strejc)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13227441
Flicek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog18% won 2 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Strejc1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite37% won 17 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlicek4wins
AwayStrejc6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrejc leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlicek66.7%2 of 3
AwayStrejc71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flicek3Strejc7n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S2Flicek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S3Flicek6Strejc4n = 10Flicek took 6 of 10
S4Flicek4Strejc5n = 9Strejc took 5 of 9
S5Flicek3Strejc3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlicekStrejcF − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.941.6−1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlicekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 136 vs 208 / 46846.3%44.4%63 / 136 vs 208 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrejcFlicek 1.91/Strejc 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strejc · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 17:54T. Flicek361213113F. Strejc28101170
LSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek29771141F. Strejc3611113113
LSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek31912641F. Strejc43111011113
WSep 2 · 16:55T. Flicek48119116113F. Strejc4191121182
WAug 27 · 17:25T. Flicek528121011113F. Strejc49111012882
LAug 19 · 15:55T. Flicek4691161192F. Strejc41113115113
WMar 26 · 17:55T. Flicek43611312113F. Strejc43113111082
LFeb 25 · 18:25T. Flicek32671181F. Strejc4211119113
LFeb 19 · 19:40T. Flicek4076111152F. Strejc49111197113
LFeb 19 · 16:25T. Flicek4211611772F. Strejc44711411113
T. Flicek10
WOct 1 · 18:00T. Flicek1.95411912113V. Benak1.75119111082WOct 1 · 15:55V. Benak1.61811871T. Flicek2.2011911113LOct 1 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.571111113T. Flicek2.255870LSep 24 · 17:25T. Flicek1.8311116132O. Kadavy1.83681111113WSep 24 · 15:55M. Cerny1.731116671T. Flicek2.0061811113LSep 24 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.73611126113T. Flicek2.00117101152WSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113LSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113LSep 15 · 15:55L. Soucek1.911114113T. Flicek1.8041280LSep 15 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.5311912113T. Flicek2.388111051
F. Strejc10
WOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071LOct 1 · 14:55V. Benak1.67441111113F. Strejc2.1011117792LSep 28 · 21:25M. Stusek1.851113113F. Strejc1.8571170LSep 28 · 20:50F. Strejc2.75511841J. Zlamal1.4011311113LSep 28 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.61991111113F. Strejc2.2011116472LSep 28 · 18:50M. Stusek1.801111113F. Strejc1.919980LSep 27 · 14:17F. Strejc2.257990O. Kadavy1.571111113WSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102LSep 15 · 17:54F. Strejc1.80101170T. Flicek1.911213113WSep 15 · 17:25T. Flicek1.83771141F. Strejc1.8311113113
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