TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Hryhorenko vs Andrey Troyan 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111412116––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched: 80.1% is still 80.1%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
80.1%
80.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 67 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 80.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 2–18 Andrey Troyan Stepan Hryhorenko has won 2 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2080.1%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 1.7pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Troyan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-18 in 20
Troyan
Wrong
gap of 16 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1561 vs Troyan 1686
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 80% vs Troyan 60%
Hryhorenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 60% vs Troyan 80%
Troyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko -1 · Troyan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 4.00 / Troyan 1.222
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Troyan)-1.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223872
Hryhorenko4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 23 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Troyan1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 184 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it92% 102 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it79% 141 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHryhorenko1wins
AwayTroyan9wins
Troyan leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHryhorenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTroyan100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hryhorenko1Troyan9n = 10Troyan took 9 of 10
S2Hryhorenko4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Hryhorenko2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S4Hryhorenko0Troyan4n = 4Troyan took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricHryhorenkoTroyanH − TBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match24.935.1−10.2per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 139 vs 478 / 97940.3%48.8%56 / 139 vs 478 / 979Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanHryhorenko 4.00/Troyan 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.1%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hryhorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko381314113A. Troyan29111260
LAug 17 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko26511461A. Troyan3911611113
LAug 15 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko198470A. Troyan331111113
LAug 10 · 10:33S. Hryhorenko179440A. Troyan331111113
LAug 10 · 09:35S. Hryhorenko31671171A. Troyan3811115113
LAug 7 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko113530A. Troyan331111113
LAug 6 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko204880A. Troyan331111113
LAug 3 · 10:18S. Hryhorenko275111011A. Troyan4111712113
LAug 3 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko23101030A. Troyan351212113
LAug 1 · 09:35S. Hryhorenko37911981A. Troyan3711411113
S. Hryhorenko10
LOct 1 · 05:30S. Hryhorenko2.509136101Y. Kovshun1.50111111123WSep 21 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.731112113S. Solomko2.0071080WSep 21 · 10:20A. Kurtenko3.0031271162S. Hryhorenko1.361110119113WSep 21 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.9111101111113E. Populovskyi1.8081213782WSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163WSep 21 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.801111113O. Osadchyi1.918630LSep 2 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.73111110792E. Populovskyi2.00751211113LSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141LSep 2 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko1.61911791S. Solomko2.2011711113WSep 2 · 07:35A. Kurtenko2.209650S. Hryhorenko1.611111113
A. Troyan10
LOct 1 · 05:00O. Tymofeev2.10411115133A. Troyan1.67119211112WSep 29 · 09:28A. Troyan2.501111113Y. Kovshun1.503990LSep 29 · 08:30D. Khairov2.251011511123A. Troyan1.57126111102WSep 29 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.53111498112A. Troyan2.389121111133WSep 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.83781151A. Troyan1.8311119113WSep 29 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.613460A. Troyan2.201111113WSep 28 · 11:00Y. Volkov1.673570A. Troyan2.101111113WSep 28 · 10:00A. Martyniuk2.256850A. Troyan1.571111113WSep 28 · 08:30I. Emets1.5356100A. Troyan2.381111123WSep 28 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.401113831A. Troyan1.3051511113
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