TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Stepan Hryhorenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11810121113117118
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Hryhorenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Stepan Hryhorenko at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 0–2 Eduard Populovskyi Stepan Hryhorenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1521 vs Populovskyi 1423
Hryhorenko
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 40% vs Populovskyi 0%
Hryhorenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 60% vs Populovskyi 20%
Hryhorenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko +2 · Populovskyi -5
Populovskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166595
Hryhorenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Populovskyi1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 102 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it85% 75 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHryhorenko0wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHryhorenkoPopulovskyiH − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.543.0−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 134 vs 339 / 69338.8%48.9%52 / 134 vs 339 / 693Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiHryhorenko 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hryhorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 2 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko48111110792E. Populovskyi46751211113
LAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko33881161E. Populovskyi4011117113
S. Hryhorenko10
WSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163WSep 21 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.801111113O. Osadchyi1.918630LSep 2 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.73111110792E. Populovskyi2.00751211113LSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141LSep 2 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko1.61911791S. Solomko2.2011711113WSep 2 · 07:35A. Kurtenko2.209650S. Hryhorenko1.611111113WSep 2 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko1.531111113O. Lipeiko2.386690LAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.73881161E. Populovskyi2.0011117113WAug 30 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.837620S. Hryhorenko1.831111113WAug 30 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.611281111113S. Solomko2.2014114782
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 21 · 07:20A. Kurtenko1.9111911113E. Populovskyi1.80611691LSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko2.2571111113E. Populovskyi1.57115881LSep 20 · 12:20D. Khairov1.831111113E. Populovskyi1.839340LSep 20 · 11:20S. Solomko1.229111110123E. Populovskyi4.00119812102LSep 20 · 09:50O. Osadchyi1.331111113E. Populovskyi3.259330WSep 20 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.8010119101E. Populovskyi1.9112911123WSep 20 · 05:50A. Kotiash1.917511101E. Populovskyi1.8011119123LSep 19 · 19:00E. Populovskyi3.758740S. Solomko1.251111113WSep 2 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.73111110792E. Populovskyi2.00751211113WAug 30 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.73881161E. Populovskyi2.0011117113
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