TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Hryhorenko vs Yaroslav Kovshun 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91113116111012––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 64.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 0–7 Yaroslav Kovshun Stepan Hryhorenko has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2764.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-7 in 7
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1550 vs Kovshun 1654
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 100% vs Kovshun 60%
Hryhorenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 70% vs Kovshun 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko +5 · Kovshun +1
Hryhorenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhorenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 2.50 / Kovshun 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kovshun)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223632
Hryhorenko2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 10 days ago (Sep 21) · back after a break
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 23 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Kovshun1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 105 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHryhorenko0wins
AwayKovshun7wins
3 of 7 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–0, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHryhorenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovshun100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hryhorenko2Kovshun5n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S2Hryhorenko1Kovshun6n = 7Kovshun took 6 of 7
S3Hryhorenko3Kovshun4n = 7Kovshun took 4 of 7
S4Hryhorenko3Kovshun3n = 6split evenly
S5Hryhorenko0Kovshun3n = 3Kovshun took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricHryhorenkoKovshunH − KBasisWins07−7in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match35.942.9−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 137 vs 336 / 62940.2%53.4%55 / 137 vs 336 / 629Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunHryhorenko 2.50/Kovshun 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 15 · 07:35S. Hryhorenko4491171162Y. Kovshun47115119113
LJul 31 · 06:03S. Hryhorenko2211920Y. Kovshun351311113
LJul 28 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko25911141Y. Kovshun3811115113
LJul 24 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko48116111192Y. Kovshun46411137113
LJul 11 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko341081331Y. Kovshun45121111113
LJul 4 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko34871181Y. Kovshun4211119113
LJul 3 · 09:35S. Hryhorenko4411391382Y. Kovshun473111111113
S. Hryhorenko10
WOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko4.001314113A. Troyan1.22111260WSep 21 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.731112113S. Solomko2.0071080WSep 21 · 10:20A. Kurtenko3.0031271162S. Hryhorenko1.361110119113WSep 21 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.9111101111113E. Populovskyi1.8081213782WSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163WSep 21 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.801111113O. Osadchyi1.918630LSep 2 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.73111110792E. Populovskyi2.00751211113LSep 2 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.3811115113S. Hryhorenko1.53491141LSep 2 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko1.61911791S. Solomko2.2011711113WSep 2 · 07:35A. Kurtenko2.209650S. Hryhorenko1.611111113
Y. Kovshun10
WOct 1 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.739830Y. Kovshun2.001111113LSep 29 · 09:28A. Troyan2.501111113Y. Kovshun1.503990WSep 29 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.2554111192Y. Kovshun1.57111158113LSep 29 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.53111498112A. Troyan2.389121111133WSep 29 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.73115110Y. Kovshun2.001311133WSep 29 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.301111113D. Khairov3.406470WSep 26 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.80911231Y. Kovshun1.9111711113WSep 26 · 10:35Y. Kovshun1.53119911113A. Troyan2.3871111872WSep 26 · 08:35D. Khairov3.251341110112Y. Kovshun1.331111312133WSep 26 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.737129121Y. Kovshun2.00111011143
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