TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrey Troyan vs Yaroslav Kovshun 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119119––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9
54 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 44–88 Yaroslav Kovshun Andrey Troyan has won 44 of their 132 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Troyan beat Kovshun 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 2.50 / Kovshun 1.50
Setka Cup · #13215772
Troyan2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 52 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 66
Kovshun1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 103 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it80% 71 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan4wins
AwayKovshun6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan33.3%2 of 6
AwayKovshun50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan6Kovshun4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S2Troyan6Kovshun4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Troyan4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S4Troyan3Kovshun6n = 9Kovshun took 6 of 9
S5Troyan3Kovshun4n = 7Kovshun took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKovshunT − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.642.60.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 981 vs 335 / 62749.1%53.4%482 / 981 vs 335 / 627Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunTroyan 2.50/Kovshun 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–0
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 07:00A. Troyan569121111133Y. Kovshun53111498112
LSep 26 · 10:35A. Troyan4471111872Y. Kovshun51119911113
LSep 25 · 05:00A. Troyan4212113882Y. Kovshun511081111113
LSep 22 · 10:00A. Troyan341176101Y. Kovshun4171111123
WSep 18 · 05:00A. Troyan351311113Y. Kovshun2311570
WSep 15 · 08:00A. Troyan43711311113Y. Kovshun4311911482
LSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan4511117972Y. Kovshun43641111113
LSep 11 · 08:00A. Troyan31611681Y. Kovshun4111811113
LSep 8 · 07:05A. Troyan48119117102Y. Kovshun42411411123
WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan48118711113Y. Kovshun3871111272
A. Troyan10
LSep 29 · 08:30D. Khairov2.251011511123A. Troyan1.57126111102WSep 29 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.53111498112A. Troyan2.389121111133WSep 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.83781151A. Troyan1.8311119113WSep 29 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.613460A. Troyan2.201111113WSep 28 · 11:00Y. Volkov1.673570A. Troyan2.101111113WSep 28 · 10:00A. Martyniuk2.256850A. Troyan1.571111113WSep 28 · 08:30I. Emets1.5356100A. Troyan2.381111123WSep 28 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.401113831A. Troyan1.3051511113WSep 28 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov3.4081050A. Troyan1.301112113WSep 26 · 11:35D. Khairov2.25711141A. Troyan1.5711411113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 29 · 08:00O. Leonenko2.2554111192Y. Kovshun1.57111158113LSep 29 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.53111498112A. Troyan2.389121111133WSep 29 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.73115110Y. Kovshun2.001311133WSep 29 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.301111113D. Khairov3.406470WSep 26 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.80911231Y. Kovshun1.9111711113WSep 26 · 10:35Y. Kovshun1.53119911113A. Troyan2.3871111872WSep 26 · 08:35D. Khairov3.251341110112Y. Kovshun1.331111312133WSep 26 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.737129121Y. Kovshun2.00111011143LSep 26 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.611111113Y. Kovshun2.208970WSep 25 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.7381050Y. Kovshun2.001112113
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