TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Tymofeev vs Andrey Troyan 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111191125111311
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:58 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Andrey Troyan @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingOleksandr Tymofeev above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 88 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 57.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Tymofeev 34–53 Andrey Troyan Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 34 of their 87 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:5857.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Troyan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-53 in 87
Troyan
Wrong
gap of 19 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymofeev 1608 vs Troyan 1721
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymofeev 80% vs Troyan 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymofeev 80% vs Troyan 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymofeev +2 · Troyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymofeev 2.10 / Troyan 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Troyan)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223885
Tymofeev2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 27)
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog37% won 35 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Troyan1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 184 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it92% 102 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it79% 141 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymofeev6wins
AwayTroyan4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTymofeev leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymofeev83.3%5 of 6
AwayTroyan75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymofeev6Troyan4n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S2Tymofeev2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S3Tymofeev7Troyan2n = 9Tymofeev took 7 of 9
S4Tymofeev2Troyan5n = 7Troyan took 5 of 7
S5Tymofeev4Troyan1n = 5Tymofeev took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymofeevTroyanTymofeev − TroyanBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.442.8−2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymofeevTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 528 vs 478 / 97753.4%48.9%282 / 528 vs 478 / 977Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanTymofeev 2.10/Troyan 1.67
Miss
What we said
57%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrey Troyan @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 11 · 12:05O. Tymofeev49145136113A. Troyan541211111192
LJul 7 · 11:10O. Tymofeev3811712352A. Troyan496111011113
WJun 20 · 11:35O. Tymofeev45115711113A. Troyan4571111792
LMay 26 · 15:40O. Tymofeev2121180A. Troyan351113113
LMay 12 · 14:10O. Tymofeev378101181A. Troyan4311129113
WMay 10 · 19:00O. Tymofeev52118117153A. Troyan49511911132
WApr 24 · 15:40O. Tymofeev50415119113A. Troyan51111381182
WApr 5 · 07:35O. Tymofeev351113113A. Troyan2581160
WMar 7 · 12:00O. Tymofeev3711411113A. Troyan34711971
O. Tymofeev10
LOct 1 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.801110118113O. Tymofeev1.9181281192WSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113WSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142LSep 27 · 08:50S. Solomko2.751111183O. Tymofeev1.4044160WSep 27 · 07:50O. Osadchyi1.9171111992O. Tymofeev1.80117511113WSep 27 · 06:20A. Kurtenko2.6312119121O. Tymofeev1.4414511143WSep 26 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.441112113S. Solomko2.6381050WSep 26 · 17:00B. Zaika2.63610100O. Tymofeev1.441112123LSep 26 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.63129111153O. Tymofeev1.4414119822WSep 26 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.301112113D. Patalakha3.4071040
A. Troyan10
LOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko4.001314113A. Troyan1.22111260WSep 29 · 09:28A. Troyan2.501111113Y. Kovshun1.503990LSep 29 · 08:30D. Khairov2.251011511123A. Troyan1.57126111102WSep 29 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.53111498112A. Troyan2.389121111133WSep 29 · 05:30O. Leonenko1.83781151A. Troyan1.8311119113WSep 29 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.613460A. Troyan2.201111113WSep 28 · 11:00Y. Volkov1.673570A. Troyan2.101111113WSep 28 · 10:00A. Martyniuk2.256850A. Troyan1.571111113WSep 28 · 08:30I. Emets1.5356100A. Troyan2.381111123WSep 28 · 06:30V. Bilobrov3.401113831A. Troyan1.3051511113
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