TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Pawel Kurek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115117––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:07 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
50 points played in total.
Set by set
115115117––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 4–0 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Tkocz beat Kurek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1445 vs Kurek 1395
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Kurek 60%
Tkocz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 90% vs Kurek 60%
Tkocz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.80 / Kurek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkocz)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13181160
Tkocz1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 288 of 431
Up 2–0, closes it95% 161 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it85% 236 of 279
Kurek1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 127 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTkocz4wins
AwayKurek0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderTkocz leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz100%3 of 3
AwayKurekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz3Kurek1n = 4Tkocz took 3 of 4
S2Tkocz2Kurek2n = 4split evenly
S3Tkocz3Kurek1n = 4Tkocz took 3 of 4
S4Tkocz2Kurek1n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTkoczKurekT − KBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match44.231.8+12.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 1182 vs 436 / 86266.4%50.6%785 / 1182 vs 436 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.80/Kurek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz511161112113P. Kurek4341171472
WAug 19 · 01:10M. Tkocz331111113P. Kurek134720
WJul 9 · 21:35M. Tkocz4211911113P. Kurek31911651
WMar 1 · 08:10M. Tkocz51911911113P. Kurek4011711382
M. Tkocz10
LSep 23 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.75711941M. Sikon1.9511611113WSep 22 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.571411113M. Paszkiewicz2.2512840WSep 22 · 22:25P. Adamus1.751110231M. Tkocz1.9551211113WSep 22 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.80111176113M. Lebek1.9098111192WSep 22 · 20:00M. Tkocz1.101111113K. Kowalski4.502450WSep 22 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.57611611113R. Gajda2.2011611942WSep 22 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.7511911113P. Kaczynski1.95611881WSep 22 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.659550M. Tkocz1.401111113WSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.651161112113P. Kurek2.0541171472WSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113
P. Kurek10
WSep 23 · 01:10P. Adamus1.8568121182P. Kurek1.801111109113LSep 23 · 24:25P. Kurek2.1531171162M. Lebek1.60118118113WSep 22 · 22:50P. Kurek1.701111113M. Paszkiewicz1.954660LSep 22 · 22:00M. Sikon2.951311113P. Kurek1.3611490WSep 22 · 20:45W. Pytlas2.05119761P. Kurek1.6571111113WSep 22 · 19:35P. Kurek1.931111113P. Kaczynski1.787980WSep 22 · 18:25K. Kowalski4.507590P. Kurek1.101111113WSep 22 · 17:10R. Gajda1.7413831192P. Kurek1.951111116113LSep 22 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.651161112113P. Kurek2.0541171472LSep 22 · 04:40M. Sikon1.81119513113P. Kurek1.90911111192
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.