TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Anatolii Kovalenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171012311117114
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 87 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 64.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 7–19 Anatolii Kovalenko Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-19 in 26
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1386 vs Kovalenko 1393
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 60% vs Kovalenko 40%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -2 · Kovalenko -3
Kovalenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.50 / Kovalenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13180090
Skhabitskiy2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 92 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Kovalenko1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 77 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayKovalenko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy40%2 of 5
AwayKovalenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy5Kovalenko2n = 7Skhabitskiy took 5 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy0Kovalenko3n = 3Kovalenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.636.7−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1062 vs 283 / 53744.4%52.7%471 / 1062 vs 283 / 537Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoSkhabitskiy 2.50/Kovalenko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 17 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy4812129782A. Kovalenko5310101111113
LSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy31115961A. Kovalenko4071111113
WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy3711411113A. Kovalenko28511391
LAug 10 · 08:20S. Skhabitskiy2510780A. Kovalenko341211113
LAug 7 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy144550A. Kovalenko331111113
WAug 6 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy3961111113A. Kovalenko29114951
WJul 31 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy331111113A. Kovalenko157440
LJul 23 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy4569111272A. Kovalenko501111710113
LJul 13 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy3991141142A. Kovalenko48118117113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 23 · 15:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25571191O. Lipeiko1.5711117113LSep 23 · 12:00S. Skhabitskiy1.83128100M. Stetsenko1.831411123LSep 21 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.7311118113S. Skhabitskiy2.00991171WSep 21 · 10:35S. Skhabitskiy2.001311113M. Stetsenko1.7311680LSep 21 · 08:35O. Ovsiienko1.831111113S. Skhabitskiy1.831140WSep 21 · 06:35V. Mukhin4.336780S. Skhabitskiy1.201111113WSep 21 · 05:35D. Ponomarenko2.38101311492S. Skhabitskiy1.531211611113WSep 20 · 18:00V. Nechai2.00741291S. Skhabitskiy1.73111110113WSep 20 · 17:00S. Skhabitskiy1.731114113D. Ponomarenko2.0081250LSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy1.73441131O. Ovsiienko2.0011119113
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 23 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.75115118113A. Kovalenko1.4061161162LSep 23 · 12:30V. Smyk2.00271111153A. Kovalenko1.73111155132LSep 22 · 11:35O. Leonenko1.73126113113A. Kovalenko2.00101151152LSep 22 · 10:35F. Voinarovskyi1.8311115113A. Kovalenko1.83781141WSep 22 · 09:05I. Emets1.67511561A. Kovalenko2.1011611113WSep 22 · 07:05A. Kurtenko1.801041141A. Kovalenko1.9112117113LSep 22 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.501111113A. Kovalenko2.505860LSep 17 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.25612911113A. Kovalenko1.57111011782WSep 17 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.441111113O. Ovsiienko2.635580LSep 17 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.911111710113A. Kovalenko1.8046111292
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