TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Filip Mandrysz 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117811118––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 13–11 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1409 vs Mandrysz 1353
Jr
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Mandrysz 80%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Mandrysz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Mandrysz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.10 / Mandrysz 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Mandrysz)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13176835
Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 79 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back35% 25 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Mandrysz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 71 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it72% 47 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayMandrysz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr50%3 of 6
AwayMandrysz50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Mandrysz4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr6Mandrysz4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S4Jr4Mandrysz4n = 8split evenly
S5Jr2Mandrysz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrMandryszJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.140.1−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 459 vs 227 / 45253.4%50.2%245 / 459 vs 227 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszJr 2.10/Mandrysz 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 16:10L. Jr4111118113F. Mandrysz34871181
LSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr491111111152F. Mandrysz55139139113
LSep 5 · 09:10L. Jr228860F. Mandrysz331111113
LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr3711701182F. Mandrysz50811119113
WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr46711116113F. Mandrysz3811391142
LAug 8 · 14:10L. Jr351151091F. Mandrysz4281112113
LJul 29 · 14:15L. Jr34136961F. Mandrysz44111111113
WJul 28 · 14:10L. Jr49613117123F. Mandrysz481111511102
WJul 11 · 13:10L. Jr44111111113F. Mandrysz30761341
WJul 11 · 11:10L. Jr341211113F. Mandrysz2710980
L. Jr10
WSep 22 · 14:40T. Ogrocki1.3681250L. Jr3.001114113LSep 22 · 14:10O. Vaclahovsky1.53614411123L. Jr2.381112118102WSep 20 · 12:39L. Jr1.61111111113M. Sobota2.20971341WSep 20 · 12:15M. Sobota1.918690L. Jr1.801111113LSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580WSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 22 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.5011119113O. Vaclahovsky1.50571191LSep 22 · 13:40T. Ogrocki1.671112113F. Mandrysz2.1051040WSep 20 · 13:09F. Mandrysz2.1091111123P. Chvojka1.671149101WSep 20 · 11:45P. Chvojka1.5389111142F. Mandrysz2.38111116113WSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113LSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101WSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
F. Mandrysz
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