TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Jr vs Tomas Ogrocki 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113911––––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 63 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 1–0 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jr beat Ogrocki 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1409 vs Ogrocki 1424
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Ogrocki 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Ogrocki 80%
Ogrocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Ogrocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.10 / Ogrocki 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Ogrocki)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13179540
Jr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 79 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back35% 25 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Ogrocki1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 61 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJr1wins
AwayOgrocki0wins
Jr leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricJrOgrockiJ − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.025.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 459 vs 231 / 49053.4%47.1%245 / 459 vs 231 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiJr 2.10/Ogrocki 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 22 · 14:40L. Jr361114113T. Ogrocki2581250
L. Jr10
WSep 22 · 16:10L. Jr2.1011118113F. Mandrysz1.67871181WSep 22 · 14:40T. Ogrocki1.3681250L. Jr3.001114113LSep 22 · 14:10O. Vaclahovsky1.53614411123L. Jr2.381112118102WSep 20 · 12:39L. Jr1.61111111113M. Sobota2.20971341WSep 20 · 12:15M. Sobota1.918690L. Jr1.801111113LSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580WSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 22 · 15:40T. Ogrocki1.5711713133O. Vaclahovsky2.2571111111LSep 22 · 14:40T. Ogrocki1.3681250L. Jr3.001114113WSep 22 · 13:40T. Ogrocki1.671112113F. Mandrysz2.1051040WSep 20 · 21:15T. Ogrocki1.441112113R. Benesz2.6321040WSep 20 · 19:40J. Vanous1.9191111472T. Ogrocki1.80117911113WSep 20 · 19:10R. Benesz2.388590T. Ogrocki1.531111113WSep 20 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.53911511113P. Jokiel2.3811511772WSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113LSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951WSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
Nothing scheduled
T. Ogrocki
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