TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bartlomiej Molka vs Marcin Stepien 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
2.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111161012––
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.41
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
8119111161012––
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 60–67 Marcin Stepien Bartlomiej Molka has won 60 of their 127 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
60-67 in 127
Stepien
Correct
gap of 7 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1547 vs Stepien 1652
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 80% vs Stepien 60%
Molka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 50% vs Stepien 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +3 · Stepien -1
Molka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.60 / Stepien 1.41
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Stepien)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13174761
Molka2.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 166 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 214
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Stepien1.41
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 192 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it94% 128 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it81% 154 of 191
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka4wins
AwayStepien6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka75%3 of 4
AwayStepien83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Molka2Stepien8n = 10Stepien took 8 of 10
S3Molka5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S4Molka3Stepien2n = 5Molka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaStepienM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.035.6−1.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime539 / 1178 vs 651 / 117245.8%55.6%539 / 1178 vs 651 / 1172Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienMolka 2.60/Stepien 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 06:30B. Molka388911101M. Stepien4011116123
LSep 20 · 17:05B. Molka183690M. Stepien331111113
WSep 14 · 09:30B. Molka4291111113M. Stepien32116781
WSep 13 · 23:40B. Molka331111113M. Stepien237880
LSep 13 · 17:05B. Molka2156100M. Stepien341111123
WSep 7 · 13:10B. Molka44115115123M. Stepien47811711102
LSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka4811891192M. Stepien43511115113
WSep 6 · 15:35B. Molka46111014113M. Stepien355121261
LAug 31 · 10:00B. Molka2781270M. Stepien361114113
LAug 30 · 16:35B. Molka238690M. Stepien331111113
B. Molka10
WSep 22 · 05:00B. Molka2.251451111143M. Lysakowski1.541211913122WSep 21 · 13:00S. Wloszek1.959780B. Molka1.771111113WSep 21 · 11:30B. Molka2.051112711113P. Gola1.66910111382LSep 21 · 09:30D. Stapor1.571113113B. Molka2.2091190WSep 21 · 08:30B. Molka1.831312113S. Radlo1.83111070LSep 21 · 07:30S. Wloszek1.8511511113B. Molka1.85711681LSep 21 · 06:00B. Molka2.751113971M. Lysakowski1.4061511113WSep 20 · 22:45S. Wloszek—1512108152B. Molka—13101211173LSep 20 · 22:05B. Molka1.669911131S. Radlo2.1011117153LSep 20 · 20:05M. Lysakowski1.341411113B. Molka3.1012770
M. Stepien10
LSep 22 · 05:30D. Stapor1.88113711113M. Stepien1.8291111672WSep 20 · 23:45M. Lysakowski2.30611881M. Stepien1.5511711113LSep 20 · 21:35M. Stepien1.418650S. Wloszek2.601111113WSep 20 · 19:35P. Gola2.2071181182M. Stepien1.57119115113WSep 20 · 18:35M. Stepien1.481111113S. Radlo2.306580LSep 20 · 17:35M. Lysakowski1.90111012113M. Stepien1.808121091WSep 20 · 17:05M. Stepien1.471111113B. Molka2.503690WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890
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