TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dawid Stapor vs Marcin Stepien 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
1.88
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119311711116117
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
119311711116117
H2H Dawid Stapor 100–80 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 80 of their 180 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
100-80 in 180
Stapor
Correct
gap of 20 in 180, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1627 vs Stepien 1655
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 100% vs Stepien 60%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 80% vs Stepien 50%
Stapor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +7 · Stepien +1
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.88 / Stepien 1.82
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepien)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13173120
Stapor1.88
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 41 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Stepien1.82
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 192 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it94% 128 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it81% 154 of 191
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayStepien7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaporn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStepien87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Stepien8n = 10Stepien took 8 of 10
S2Stapor4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Stapor5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor3Stepien3n = 6split evenly
S5Stapor1Stepien2n = 3Stepien took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporStepienStapor − StepienBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.540.2−7.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 910 vs 655 / 117853.3%55.6%485 / 910 vs 655 / 1178Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStapor 1.88/Stepien 1.82
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor331111113M. Stepien236890
LSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor27761131M. Stepien4211119113
LSep 6 · 17:35D. Stapor186570M. Stepien331111113
WSep 1 · 05:00D. Stapor52111811123M. Stepien489209101
LAug 27 · 11:00D. Stapor218490M. Stepien331111113
WAug 23 · 16:35D. Stapor46851111113M. Stepien4211117852
LAug 21 · 05:00D. Stapor4061241172M. Stepien511110118113
LAug 18 · 05:00D. Stapor184950M. Stepien331111113
LJul 29 · 13:40D. Stapor27512731M. Stepien43111011113
LJul 29 · 11:30D. Stapor4361213572M. Stepien5411101111113
D. Stapor10
WSep 21 · 13:30D. Stapor2.0512117113M. Lysakowski1.701061151WSep 21 · 11:00D. Stapor1.8312117113S. Wloszek1.871081151WSep 21 · 09:30D. Stapor1.571113113B. Molka2.2091190WSep 21 · 08:00D. Stapor2.25111212113M. Lysakowski1.579101451WSep 21 · 06:30D. Stapor1.831111113S. Radlo1.868960WSep 21 · 05:00D. Stapor1.511021111113P. Gola2.4012114642WSep 19 · 14:05M. Galus1.83811491D. Stapor1.8911711113LSep 19 · 13:05S. Wloszek2.00111011113D. Stapor1.66212781WSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus1.801111113D. Stapor1.903690
M. Stepien10
WSep 20 · 23:45M. Lysakowski2.30611881M. Stepien1.5511711113LSep 20 · 21:35M. Stepien1.418650S. Wloszek2.601111113WSep 20 · 19:35P. Gola2.2071181182M. Stepien1.57119115113WSep 20 · 18:35M. Stepien1.481111113S. Radlo2.306580LSep 20 · 17:35M. Lysakowski1.90111012113M. Stepien1.808121091WSep 20 · 17:05M. Stepien1.471111113B. Molka2.503690WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 10:05D. Skvarskyi1.431111113M. Stepien2.437750
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