TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Pawel Gola
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119811115811
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:29 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
711119811115811
H2H Pawel Gola 49–115 Marcin Stepien Pawel Gola has won 49 of their 164 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:29What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-115 in 164
Stepien
Correct
gap of 66 in 164, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gola 1618 vs Stepien 1648
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gola 80% vs Stepien 60%
Gola
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gola 70% vs Stepien 50%
Gola
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gola +4 · Stepien +1
Gola
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gola form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGola 2.20 / Stepien 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Stepien)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13165988
Gola2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 72 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 72
Stepien1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 188 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it94% 126 of 134
Up 1–0, closes it80% 150 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGola2wins
AwayStepien8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGola66.7%2 of 3
AwayStepien100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gola3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Gola2Stepien8n = 10Stepien took 8 of 10
S3Gola4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S4Gola2Stepien2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricGolaStepienG − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.136.4−7.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGolaStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime584 / 1188 vs 653 / 117649.2%55.5%584 / 1188 vs 653 / 1176Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienGola 2.20/Stepien 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 13:40P. Gola331111113M. Stepien175480
LSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola3712541152M. Stepien501011117113
LSep 14 · 12:30P. Gola56917111182M. Stepien561115613113
LSep 14 · 06:00P. Gola166550M. Stepien331111113
WSep 13 · 20:35P. Gola4211911113M. Stepien35711891
LSep 12 · 08:05P. Gola157260M. Stepien331111113
LSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola177640M. Stepien331111113
LSep 1 · 09:00P. Gola381191171M. Stepien3913114113
LAug 31 · 11:00P. Gola177460M. Stepien331111113
LAug 24 · 11:30P. Gola2041150M. Stepien351113113
P. Gola10
WSep 20 · 18:05P. Gola1.6011711113B. Molka2.10811671WSep 20 · 16:35P. Gola1.60111311113S. Radlo2.10615981WSep 20 · 15:05P. Gola1.391711113S. Wloszek2.8015880WSep 18 · 13:40M. Stepien1.405480P. Gola2.751111113WSep 18 · 11:00P. Gola2.0511711113D. Stapor1.68311961LSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Gola2.0511138113M. Lysakowski1.666111181WSep 18 · 06:30P. Gola3.3511117133D. Skvarskyi1.289311111LSep 18 · 05:00P. Gola2.408670M. Galus1.501111113LSep 16 · 13:10P. Gola2.14661191D. Stapor1.6411117113
M. Stepien10
WSep 20 · 18:35M. Stepien1.481111113S. Radlo2.306580LSep 20 · 17:35M. Lysakowski1.90111012113M. Stepien1.808121091WSep 20 · 17:05M. Stepien1.471111113B. Molka2.503690WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 10:05D. Skvarskyi1.431111113M. Stepien2.437750WSep 19 · 08:05S. Wloszek2.504490M. Stepien1.471111113LSep 18 · 13:40M. Stepien1.405480P. Gola2.751111113WSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113
Upcoming Matches
P. Gola
M. Stepien
Nothing scheduled
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