TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.48
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115118––––
Szymon Radlo
Away
2.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
116115118––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 45–37 Szymon Radlo Szymon Radlo has won 37 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (61%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-37 in 82
Stepien
Correct
gap of 8 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1638 vs Radlo 1524
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 40% vs Radlo 20%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 50% vs Radlo 30%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -1 · Radlo -3
Radlo
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radlo form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.48 / Radlo 2.30
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stepien)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13165990
Stepien1.48
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 188 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it94% 126 of 134
Up 1–0, closes it80% 150 of 187
Radlo2.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 167 of 335
Down 0–1, comes back23% 36 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien4wins
AwayRadlo6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRadlo leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien100%4 of 4
AwayRadlo100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien4Radlo6n = 10Radlo took 6 of 10
S2Stepien5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S3Stepien7Radlo3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Stepien3Radlo3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienRadloS − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.537.1+1.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1176 vs 378 / 76055.5%49.7%653 / 1176 vs 378 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.48/Radlo 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 05:30M. Stepien391314123S. Radlo331112100
WSep 13 · 15:05M. Stepien44111111113S. Radlo30313771
LSep 12 · 06:00M. Stepien37981191S. Radlo3911116113
WSep 10 · 12:40M. Stepien331111113S. Radlo188640
LSep 10 · 10:30M. Stepien2811890S. Radlo351311113
WSep 7 · 08:00M. Stepien331111113S. Radlo219570
LSep 4 · 05:00M. Stepien369116101S. Radlo4311911123
LAug 31 · 13:00M. Stepien51781411112S. Radlo561111129133
LAug 31 · 07:30M. Stepien358121141S. Radlo4411148113
LAug 30 · 23:15M. Stepien4991281192S. Radlo521110119113
M. Stepien10
LSep 20 · 17:35M. Lysakowski1.90111012113M. Stepien1.808121091WSep 20 · 17:05M. Stepien1.471111113B. Molka2.503690WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 10:05D. Skvarskyi1.431111113M. Stepien2.437750WSep 19 · 08:05S. Wloszek2.504490M. Stepien1.471111113WSep 19 · 06:05M. Ovcharenko1.58117281M. Stepien2.2581111113LSep 18 · 13:40M. Stepien1.405480P. Gola2.751111113WSep 18 · 11:30M. Stepien2.05117119113M. Galus1.6691171182
S. Radlo10
LSep 20 · 16:35P. Gola1.60111311113S. Radlo2.10615981LSep 20 · 15:35M. Lysakowski1.4913911113S. Radlo2.451111451LSep 17 · 12:40S. Radlo1.751310110M. Lysakowski1.981512133WSep 17 · 11:00D. Skvarskyi2.325311111S. Radlo1.5511117133LSep 17 · 10:00S. Radlo1.98101360S. Wloszek1.731215113WSep 17 · 09:00S. Radlo2.501113113M. Lysakowski1.4791190LSep 17 · 07:30S. Radlo2.029460M. Galus1.681111113LSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123WSep 16 · 12:40B. Molka1.681188141S. Radlo2.0561111163LSep 16 · 11:30P. Gola1.7591112113S. Radlo1.951161081
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